EUR/USD Price Forecasts: Nearing yearly lows at 1.1330 ahead of US Inflation figures
The EUR/USD is approaching yearly lows around 1.1330 as market participants brace for US inflation figures that could further bolster the dollar's strength. Recent sentiment analysis cites a bullish outlook on the USD, driven by expectations of robust inflation data. If the upcoming CPI print exceeds consensus forecasts, a breakdown below this key level could be imminent, exacerbating bearish pressure on the euro.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700 (median across 12 firms), with UBS at the high end (1.2000) and Citi at the low (1.1300). This suggests a divergence in forecasts, reflecting a range that ranges from cautious to bullish as the market assesses inflationary pressures in the US.
How firms align
There is notable variation among forecasts, with firms like JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank targeting levels of 1.1800 for March 2026, aligning closer to current sentiment emphasizing dollar strength. Conversely, Citi’s forecast of 1.1300 indicates a more pessimistic outlook for the euro against the backdrop of expected US inflation.
What the data shows
Recent revisions reflect this bearish trend for the euro, as notable adjustments were made by institutions like JPMorgan and Goldman, now both anticipating a 1.1800 target for March 2026, as detailed in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path. This shows a consensus leaning toward the dollar's strength amidst inflation concerns.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD nearing yearly low of 1.1330 ahead of US CPI.
- 02Traders should monitor inflation data closely; a strong print could push the pair lower.
- 03Key resistance level at 1.1500 may stall further declines; watch for a breakdown.
- 04Consensus shows firms' divergence, but a bearish USD trend prevails.
Market implications
Upcoming US CPI data will be critical, as a positive surprise may drive EUR/USD below the 1.1330 mark. The consensus of 1.1700 underlines expectations for volatility based on the outcome. Positioning signals leading into this data release are key to watch.
Risks to this view
Failure to strengthen the USD could invalidate this bearish view, particularly if inflation data comes out below expectations. Additionally, any significant commentary from the Fed regarding rate adjustments could shift market dynamics.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro stabilizes near 13-month lows against the US Dollar after in-line US inflation data
Euro: Stabilising above 1.1300 against US Dollar with risk driver – ING
Euro: Downtrend stretched near 1.1325 against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD downtrend extension suggests oversold conditions near 1.1325; watch for mean reversion or fresh bearish catalyst to determine next directional move.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Rebounds above 1.1350, but outlook stays bearish below key resistance
EUR/USD bounce to 1.1350 lacks conviction; structural bearish bias persists until sustained break above key technical resistance.
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