Euro stabilizes near 13-month lows against the US Dollar after in-line US inflation data
The Euro has stabilized near a 13-month low against the US Dollar, following the release of US inflation data that met market expectations. This stability comes as the EUR/USD trades at 1.1500, reflecting ongoing concerns over the region's economic outlook and the ECB's potential monetary policy responses. While inflationary pressures in the US remain contained, resulting in a neutral sentiment for the USD, the Euro faces headwinds as firms maintain cautious forecasts ahead of upcoming economic indicators.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently sits at 1.1700 (median across firms) for March 2026, indicating a slight recovery potential over the current spot. The range spans from 1.1200, as projected by Citi, to 1.2000 from UBS, highlighting diverse outlooks on Euro performance amidst recent economic data.
How firms align
Several firms, including Deutsche Bank (1.1800) and Goldman Sachs (1.1800), align with the current situation, supporting a moderate recovery for the Euro in the near term. Contrastingly, Citi remains more conservative with its lower target of 1.1300, suggesting skepticism about Euro strength amid current economic challenges.
What the data shows
Recent forecast adjustments from firms like Goldman Sachs indicate a cautious but optimistic stance, with some revising their targets upwards. Notably, the positioning continues to evolve, as seen in our internal report on the EUR/USD rate path (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path).
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD stabilizes at 1.1500, near 13-month lows.
- 02Traders should consider US inflation data’s impact on Euro strength.
- 03Watch for economic indicators that could pivot sentiment ahead of targets around 1.1700.
Market implications
Traders should focus on the 1.1500 level as a potential support point for further movements in EUR/USD. Events such as upcoming ECB guidance or US economic releases could shift sentiment. The consensus target of 1.1700 will be critical as market participants assess the Euro's recovery trajectory.
Risks to this view
A stronger-than-expected shift in US economic performance or a hawkish pivot from the Federal Reserve could undermine the Euro further, challenging the current stabilization. Key data releases should be monitored closely for any shifts in the narrative.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD Price Forecasts: Nearing yearly lows at 1.1330 ahead of US Inflation figures
EUR/USD approaching 2024 lows ahead of US CPI print suggests market pricing USD strength on inflation expectations; watch for breakdown below 1.1330 if data exceeds consensus.
Euro: Stabilising above 1.1300 against US Dollar with risk driver – ING
Euro: Downtrend stretched near 1.1325 against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD downtrend extension suggests oversold conditions near 1.1325; watch for mean reversion or fresh bearish catalyst to determine next directional move.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Rebounds above 1.1350, but outlook stays bearish below key resistance
EUR/USD bounce to 1.1350 lacks conviction; structural bearish bias persists until sustained break above key technical resistance.
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