EUR/USD: Range view holds as Dollar doubts grow – Deutsche Bank
The EUR/USD remains trapped within a narrow range as skepticism about the dollar's strong fundamentals grows, a narrative echoed in Deutsche Bank's recent analysis. The pair's current spot at 1.1446 marks it significantly below the consensus target of 1.1700, suggesting heightened short-term resistance for the euro against the dollar. Investors are closely monitoring developments that may affect safe-haven demand, particularly as market sentiment shifts toward the euro, influencing its relative strength. This dynamic raises questions about the sustainability of any further dollar strength, especially in light of recent economic data releases.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700 (median across firms), with notable divergence among forecasts: SocGen and CIBC target the upper bound at 1.2000, while TMGM remains cautious with a lower target of 1.1447. Deutsche Bank's stance aligns with those predicting further euro strength, reinforcing our median target outlook.
How firms align
Several firms echo the sentiment suggested by Deutsche Bank. For instance, RBC positions at 1.1700 for March, in line with the consensus, while Commerzbank leans bullish with a target of 1.1900 in the same tenor. Conversely, Danske Bank diverges significantly with a 1.1866 target, highlighting differing views on euro resilience.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from BNP Paribas reflect upward adjustments, now targeting 1.1600 for March 2026, indicating shifting expectations towards euro stability. Our analysis informs that the EUR/USD is currently trading approximately 3% below consensus levels, as noted in past reports, underscoring potential market misalignments (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path).
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Skepticism on USD fundamentals increases, affecting EUR/USD stability.
- 02Traders should note resistance around 1.15 for potential positioning.
- 03Watch for ECB commentary impacting euro strength against the dollar.
- 04A move above 1.1700 would significantly shift sentiment toward euro bullishness.
Market implications
Looking ahead, key levels to watch include the 1.15 resistance and the upcoming ECB meeting, which could provide pivotal insights or changes in policy direction that may influence trade sentiment. Our consensus target of 1.1700 remains the benchmark for evaluating shifts in positioning.
Risks to this view
A significant reversal could occur should the dollar regain its footing on strong economic data or unexpected shifts in the Federal Reserve's stance. If the dollar index shows renewed strength, especially breaking below its recent support levels, this could challenge the current range view.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.55
Firms mentioned
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1349, Median Target 1.17 — Week of September 30, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 3% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.17, with a 0.14 dispersion range exposing deep disagreement on Fed-ECB path divergence.
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