EUR/USD: Two buy trades hit targets +6%
The recent buy trades in EUR/USD have materialized successfully, yielding a +6% return for traders who acted on the setups shared on social media. With the current spot at 1.1373, this uptick challenges our existing consensus expectations of a median target at 1.1400 for December 2026. As traders discern market signals, this performance underscores a resilience in the Euro despite prevailing neutral sentiment across major currencies. Now, both traders and analysts will be keenly assessing the trajectory of the EUR as it approaches the consensus level.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD stands at 1.1400 (median across firms), with RBC at the higher end (1.2000) and Lloyds at the lower end (1.1200). The recent trades highlighted by fxstreet.com showcase the potential for upward movement, but the market's anticipation of external catalysts will play a crucial role in sustaining momentum.
How firms align
CIBC and Commerzbank are among the firms with targets suggesting further potential for Euro strength, with targets at 1.2200 for both March and June 2026. Their forecasts align closely with the positive sentiment emerging from the recent trading activity. In contrast, our analysis shows that Lloyds holds a more conservative expectation, reflecting broader caution in the market.
What the data shows
Forecast revisions in the past couple of weeks indicate a slight upward adjustment in the view for March 2026, with UBS projecting 1.2000, supporting a bullish stance. This sentiment, however, is tempered by other firms that maintain lower endpoints like Mizuho’s target of 1.1300, reflecting uneven expectations. For further insights, see our research on /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-11-11.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Recent EUR/USD trades have gained +6%, signaling potential upward momentum.
- 02Market participants should monitor the 1.1400 consensus target closely.
- 03Key upcoming data releases could disrupt current positioning.
- 04Defensive stances are still present from firms like Lloyds, indicating mixed sentiments.
Market implications
Traders should keep an eye on the 1.1400 level as it aligns with the consensus target, which may act as a significant point of resistance or support moving forward. Upcoming ECB monetary policy discussions on interest rates could serve as a critical driver for further movement in EUR/USD as we approach the end of the year.
Risks to this view
A shift in sentiment or data suggesting stronger-than-expected dollar strength could challenge the bullish outlook for the Euro. Additionally, any indication from the ECB of a deviation from anticipated policy tightening may also trigger a reassessment of positions, potentially driving EUR/USD lower than current levels.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD: Slippery slope if 1.10 breaks – Societe Generale
Break below 1.10 support with USD momentum and EUR below 200-week MA signals potential for deeper EUR/USD losses; watch for cascade selling if May lows fail.
EUR/USD: Downside risks toward 1.10 – ING
Fed-ECB rate differential widening pressures EUR/USD toward 1.10 as two-year swap spreads favour USD carry.