EUR/USD Price Forecast: Declines below 1.1100, negative outlook remains intact under 100-day SMA
The EUR/USD pair has dipped near 1.1080 amid cautious signals from the ECB, reinforcing a negative sentiment that has evolved as traders assess the implications of potential monetary policy shifts. The break below the 100-day SMA accentuates the bearish outlook, elevating concerns over further declines if levels remain unchallenged. With market dynamics shifting, the scrutiny on the ECB will be paramount in determining the Euro's trajectory against the Dollar.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1373 (median across 13 firms). This presents a range from 1.1000 (lowest target by HSBC) to 1.2200 (highest target by CIBC). The perspective from [fxstreet.com](https://www.fxstreet.com) falls in line with a more cautious view as it aligns more closely with predictions from firms like mizuho (1.1300) and abnamro (1.1284).
How firms align
Firms such as RBC (1.1600) and Commerzbank (1.1900) express relatively bullish sentiments that contrast sharply with the bearish projection highlighted in the fxstreet.com article. Conversely, Mizuho's downgraded target of 1.1300 suggests skepticism around the Euro's resilience against the Dollar, which could signal a broader market re-evaluation. For further details, see our internal reports on Mizuho and Scotiabank.
What the data shows
Recent adjustments have seen Mizuho reevaluate its target to 1.1300 and 1.1600 for December, reflecting a shift in expectations as the market reacts to central bank communications. Additionally, insights from our previous analysis (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-11-11) reinforce the narrative of a bearish outlook as current levels stand significantly below consensus expectations.
How firms align with this view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD slides below 1.1100, indicating persistent bearish sentiment.
- 02Key focus on ECB's stance signals risk of further declines.
- 03Support at 1.1000 remains critical; breaks could trigger selling.
- 04Market positioning will heavily depend on ECB communication.
Market implications
Watch for the 1.1000 support level in the coming sessions, as breaks below could catalyze further declines. The next ECB meeting will be pivotal in shaping market perception, especially regarding interest rate policy.
Risks to this view
Should the ECB signal a more hawkish stance or an unexpected shift in policy, it could expedite a reversal in Euro sentiment, pushing the EUR/USD back above critical resistance levels.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD: Downside risks toward 1.10 – ING
Fed-ECB rate differential widening pressures EUR/USD toward 1.10 as two-year swap spreads favour USD carry.
Euro finds temporary support near 1.1066 against US Dollar, outlook remains uncertain
Morning briefing: EUR/USD can decline below 1.1100
87% December hike pricing on stronger CPI supports USD strength; EUR/USD breakdown below 1.1100 flags potential shift in rate differential momentum.