Euro: Downside pressure targets 1.1490 against US Dollar – UOB
The Euro is facing significant downside pressure against the US Dollar, with UOB targeting 1.1490 as it grapples with a recent technical breakdown in EUR/USD. This bearish sentiment aligns with a broader institutional view that suggests near-term consolidation will favor dollar strength. Traders are likely reacting to the changing dynamics from the European Central Bank's recent decisions, which continue to introduce uncertainty for the Euro's trajectory.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our current consensus for EUR/USD stands at 1.1700 (median across multiple firms), with a wide range spanning from 1.1200 to 1.2000. This broad spectrum highlights divergence, as firms like Morgan Stanley project a bullish outlook at 1.2000 while others like TMGN are positioning closer to the current spot with a March forecast of 1.1447.
How firms align
Against the backdrop of UOB's bearish forecast of 1.1490, we see TMGN at 1.1447, indicating cautious alignment with the headline. Conversely, firms such as SocGen are considerably more optimistic, setting their March target at 1.1700. This divergence illustrates differing institutional perspectives, especially given the ECB's recent rate hike.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from Scotiabank and Mizuho suggest an adjustment in EUR forecasts, with Scotiabank pushing March estimates to 1.1734. Our published research, including /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-14, reinforces that EUR/USD has been trading notably below the consensus target of 1.17, reflecting ongoing bearish sentiment.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD currently trades at 1.1446, just above UOB's target of 1.1490.
- 02Watch for potential retracement points around 1.1500 for short-term sentiment shifts.
- 03Divergence persists across firms, with targets ranging from 1.1200 to 1.2000.
- 04Monitor ECB commentary for further guidance on Euro strength.
Market implications
Traders should keep a close watch on the 1.1500 level as a psychological barrier and a potential reversal point. Upcoming economic data releases from the Eurozone and signals from the ECB are critical in determining whether the Euro can regain any ground. Our consensus target at 1.1700 could serve as a future resistance point if bullish momentum returns.
Risks to this view
A reversal of this bearish stance would require the ECB to signal a more hawkish pivot or positive economic data that indicates resilience in the Eurozone. Additionally, major geopolitical developments impacting the Euro could shift sentiment dramatically, invalidating the current outlook.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.60
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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