Where it sits in our coverage
Our current consensus for EUR/USD stands at 1.1700 (median across multiple firms), with a wide range spanning from 1.1200 to 1.2000. This broad spectrum highlights divergence, as firms like Morgan Stanley project a bullish outlook at 1.2000 while others like TMGN are positioning closer to the current spot with a March forecast of 1.1447.
How firms align
Against the backdrop of UOB's bearish forecast of 1.1490, we see TMGN at 1.1447, indicating cautious alignment with the headline. Conversely, firms such as SocGen are considerably more optimistic, setting their March target at 1.1700. This divergence illustrates differing institutional perspectives, especially given the ECB's recent rate hike.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from Scotiabank and Mizuho suggest an adjustment in EUR forecasts, with Scotiabank pushing March estimates to 1.1734. Our published research, including /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-14, reinforces that EUR/USD has been trading notably below the consensus target of 1.17, reflecting ongoing bearish sentiment.