Euro: Downside pressure toward 1.1490 against US Dollar – UOB
The euro continues to face downside pressure, with expectations for EUR/USD to potentially test the 1.1490 mark against the backdrop of a stronger U.S. dollar. UOB's analysis highlights this bearish sentiment on the euro, signaling a breakdown in technical support that could trigger further selling. This trend emerges as the market shifts focus toward U.S. economic data and monetary policy developments, magnifying the implications for the eurozone's sluggish recovery.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is currently set at 1.1700 (median across firms), which reflects expectations of a rebound over the medium term. However, projections vary widely with targets ranging from 1.1200 to 1.2000 among different firms. UOB's more cautious stance aligns closely with the lower end of the spectrum, contrasting with firms such as Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a significantly stronger euro at 1.2000 by March 2026.
How firms align
In alignment with UOB's view, TMGM is positioned at 1.1447, suggesting a cautious outlook consistent with a bearish sentiment on the euro. Conversely, firms like RBC and Nomura project higher targets of 1.1600 and 1.1700 respectively, indicating a split in market sentiment towards the euro against the U.S. dollar, as highlighted in our reports on the subject (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-15).
What the data shows
Recently, Scotiabank revised their March 2026 target for EUR/USD to 1.1734, though this still indicates a more bullish outlook compared to UOB's bearish stance. Our previous research suggests the consensus remains firm at 1.17 for December 2026 (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path).
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD targets 1.1490; focus on potential resistance break.
- 02Watch for technical signals validating a bearish short-term view.
- 03Catalyst: US economic data may strengthen dollar further.
- 04Longer-term perspective remains mixed with targets up to 1.2000.
Market implications
Next, traders should monitor the 1.1490 level closely for a confirmation of the bearish trend. Additionally, upcoming U.S. economic data releases will be pivotal in shaping market sentiment, especially in light of our consensus target at 1.1700.
Risks to this view
A positive shift in eurozone economic indicators or a softer U.S. monetary policy stance could invalidate the current bearish outlook. If EUR/USD breaches the 1.1700 resistance decisively, it may signal a stronger euro trend ahead.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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