Euro: Downtrend extends toward 1.1400 against US Dollar – UOB
The Euro's downtrend against the US Dollar appears to be gaining momentum, with technical analyses targeting a fall towards 1.1400. This aligns with a broader sentiment of USD strength, amid prevailing market conditions that favor the greenback. The current spot price at 1.1446 indicates that the market may be nearing critical support levels, making this a key moment for traders and analysts alike.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target holds at 1.1684, with a range spanning from 1.1200 at Danskebank to 1.2300 at Morgan Stanley. The recent analysis from UOB aligns with the bearish sentiment, indicating a potential move towards 1.1400. This consensus suggests diverging views among firms, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding the pair.
How firms align
UOB's target of 1.1400 for March aligns closely with the bearish stance presented in their latest commentary. Meanwhile, other firms like RBC and Scotiabank maintain more bullish outlooks with targets of 1.1600 and 1.1734, respectively. This disparity illustrates differing interpretations of market dynamics and future movements in EUR/USD. Few firms, such as Standard Chartered and Morgan Stanley, echo a more cautious perspective on the Euro's long-term strength as highlighted in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-17.
What the data shows
Forecast revisions from BNP Paribas and Mizuho demonstrate shifting views, with BNP Paribas adjusting their March target to 1.1600 recently. Additionally, our published insights reveal a persistent divergence in expectations, particularly illustrated in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path that notes the significant current spot divergence from the Dec-26 consensus of 1.1700.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD is targeting 1.1400, indicating strong USD momentum.
- 02Traders should be prepared for potential breaks below 1.1446.
- 03Watch for upcoming ECB commentary as a catalyst for market shifts.
Market implications
Attention now turns to key psychological levels, especially 1.1400. Any move below 1.1446 may trigger further selling pressure. Traders should also watch for ECB announcements that could influence sentiment and positioning around our consensus target of 1.1684.
Risks to this view
Should the Eurozone exhibit unexpected economic resilience or if the ECB signals a shift towards a more hawkish stance, such developments could invalidate the current bearish outlook on the Euro against the Dollar. Specifically, any signs of Eurozone inflation stabilizing could challenge the downtrend.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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