Euro gains against US Dollar as post-Fed rally loses momentum
The Euro is gaining ground against the US Dollar as traders reassess the post-Fed landscape. After an initial rally in the USD, momentum appears to be fading, leading to a more cautious outlook on the currency pair. With the Euro currently around 1.1446, the market is contemplating a potential consolidation phase, significant given the contrasting forecasts across participating firms. This shift emphasizes the importance of watching for position-taking reversals that could steer the EUR/USD trajectory going forward.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper end of the spectrum (1.2000) and Stanchart at the lower end (1.1400). fxstreet.com's current narrative aligns with the upward sentiment reflected in our targets.
How firms align
SocGen and Nomura both support the bullish view on the Euro, with targets for March 2026 at 1.1700 and 1.1700, respectively. In contrast, firms like Danske Bank have more conservative estimates, varying widely with a March target of 1.1866, yet still reflecting optimism compared to current spot levels.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions from BNP Paribas indicate an upward adjustment to 1.1600 for March 2026, reiterating a similar bullish trajectory across analysts. For further insights, see our coverage at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-16.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD gains momentum, currently at 1.1446, suggesting potential shift in trend.
- 02Watch for key resistance levels; a break above 1.1500 could confirm bullish sentiment.
- 03March consensus target remains at 1.1700; volatility expected around upcoming ECB decisions.
- 04Monitor trader positioning for signs of reversals as market recalibrates.
Market implications
Traders should keep an eye on the 1.1500 level, as a decisive move above this could signal further gains toward the 1.1700 consensus target. Upcoming ECB events may also influence positioning and sentiment.
Risks to this view
A stronger-than-expected US economic data release, particularly around employment figures or CPI, could abruptly reverse the current bearish USD sentiment and drag the EUR/USD lower.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD starts new week under pressure as Fed hawkishness weighs on Euro
Fed hawkishness creating fresh EUR/USD selling pressure suggests market repricing higher-for-longer USD rates relative to ECB policy trajectory.
Euro: Holds below 1.15 against US Dollar as yields rise - Danske Bank
Rising yields supporting USD strength; EUR/USD trading below 1.15 suggests market repricing of relative rate differentials favors dollar appreciation.