Euro: Key support at 1.1135 in focus against US Dollar – UOB
The EUR/USD pair is facing pressure, currently trading at 1.1253, as UOB notes that it rebounded but struggled to maintain those gains, highlighting a potential consolidation phase. The critical support level at 1.1135 is now in focus, and a break below this threshold could signal an increase in bearish momentum. This scenario underscores the ongoing concern over the euro's vulnerability against a bullish US dollar.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.15 (median across 12 firms), with CIBC at the upper bound (1.2200) and ABN AMRO at the lower bound (1.1284). UOB's caution around a possible breach of 1.1135 aligns with the more conservative forecasts from firms like Investec and Mizuho, which have targets below the consensus.
How firms align
Firms such as Investec (Mar26 1.1455) and ABN AMRO (Mar26 1.1284) indicate a bearish outlook that resonates with UOB's call for consolidation around 1.1135. In contrast, CIBC and Commerzbank maintain more optimistic targets of 1.1866 and 1.1900, respectively.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions from firms like MUFG and UBS indicate a shift towards more cautious expectations, with forecasts around 1.1800 for March 2026. Insights from our published research highlight that EUR/USD is trading significantly below consensus, suggesting further themes of divergence may carry on post ECB decisions (/research/ecb-decision-2026-10-29-recap).
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 011.1135 is pivotal for EUR/USD; a breach could confirm bearish momentum.
- 02Traders should monitor for pullbacks to 1.1150 as a sell opportunity.
- 03Watch for ECB signals affecting euro sentiment; upcoming meeting is critical.
- 04Consolidation phase may extend if support at 1.1135 holds.
Market implications
Next, keep an eye on the 1.1135 support level; a breakdown will likely spark further selling pressure. Additionally, the upcoming ECB meeting on interest rates could provide volatility and shapes expectations around our consensus target of 1.15.
Risks to this view
This bearish outlook could be invalidated if EUR/USD convincingly breaks above recent highs of 1.1300, signaling renewed bullish sentiment. Moreover, any unexpected dovish ECB signals could further stabilize the euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Morning briefing: On the softer Dollar, EUR/USD is moving towards 1.1250
Market pricing of Democratic mid-term gains is supporting EUR/USD higher; watch for DXY breaks below key levels as positioning adjusts.
Euro: Rebound toward 1.1275 in focus against US Dollar - Scotiabank
ECB hawkish messaging supports December tightening expectations, capping EUR/USD downside but positioning resistance at 1.1275 amid energy headwinds.
Euro: Hawkish ECB cushions losses against US Dollar - ING
ECB hawkish positioning provides near-term floor for EUR/USD around 1.1200 despite dollar strength from potential US political outcomes.