Euro loses momentum as US Dollar recovers from intraday lows
The Euro is losing its upward momentum as the US Dollar recovers from earlier intraday lows, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards the USD. As concerns over slowing growth in the Eurozone surface, traders are closely monitoring key technical support levels for EUR/USD. The recent price action suggests a re-evaluation of the Euro's strength, particularly as it has been unable to sustain previous gains against the Dollar at current levels.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1600 (median across firms), with Goldman at the upper bound (1.2100) and Citi at the lower (1.1300). The headline reflects a broader market sentiment leaning towards a weaker Euro, as indicated by the lower targets set forth by several institutions.
How firms align
With both BOFA and Citi forecasting lower targets for March 2026 at 1.1700 and 1.1300 respectively, this aligns with the current sentiment of EUR/USD fading momentum. In contrast, firms like Goldman and MUFG suggest a more bullish outlook, with targets at 1.1800 and 1.2600, signaling a divergence in expectations. Check our insights from /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path for more on the recent trend.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from various desks have highlighted uncertainty, with HSBC lowering its target to 1.1050 and others adjusting slightly upwards. This indicates a market that is generally reassessing its position amidst economic fluctuation. See our report /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-07-19 for a detailed breakdown of the current projections.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD currently trades at 1.1434; key support levels to monitor are becoming critical.
- 02Traders should beware of the USD's recovery trajectory; watch for confirmation on resistance levels around 1.1500.
- 03A shift below 1.1400 could signal stronger bearish sentiment against the EUR.
- 04Continued revisions in forecasts suggest an evolving EUR outlook as US economic data unfolds.
Market implications
Looking ahead, traders should watch for the ECB's upcoming rate decision scheduled for July 23, 2026, as this could provide clarity on the Euro's trajectory. Maintaining a focus on the consensus target of 1.1600 will be essential as the market digests new economic data and policy changes.
Risks to this view
The outlook could be invalidated if the ECB opts for a more hawkish stance than currently anticipated, potentially driving the Euro back into a stronger position. Additionally, unexpected U.S. employment data could shift the sentiment dramatically, reversing current trends.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.55
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bears retain control below 200-SMA on H4; break of 1.1400 awaited
Technical breakdown below 1.1400 would confirm weakening EUR/USD structure; watch for range-bound consolidation before directional conviction.
Euro: ECB pause seen limiting downside against US Dollar – BBH
ECB rate pause removes immediate EUR depreciation catalyst, capping USD/EUR upside despite Fed's higher-for-longer stance.
Euro: Policy divergence supports gains against US Dollar - DBS
ECB tightening bias relative to Fed pivot expectations creates structural support for EUR/USD above 1.10 on policy rate differentials.