EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bears retain control below 200-SMA on H4; break of 1.1400 awaited
The EUR/USD pair has seen continued bearish pressure, maintaining a position below the critical 200-SMA on the 4-hour chart, as market participants await a decisive break below the 1.1400 level. This reflects an ongoing sentiment that the bears hold sway, signaling caution for potential rebounds. With current pricing at 1.1434, the market is positioned ahead of upcoming events that could influence the direction of the euro against the dollar.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our current consensus for EUR/USD reflects a target at 1.1700 for March 2026, with estimates spanning from 1.1100 to 1.2600 across different firms, highlighting a significant variance in outlooks. Notable contributors include MUFG and Goldman Sachs, both targeting 1.1800, while Citi is more conservative at 1.1300. This divergence underscores the complexity of the current market dynamics.
How firms align
In light of the recent bearish sentiment indicated in the headline, MUFG's stance of 1.1800 for March seems optimistic and contrasts with the prevailing view, which anticipates a drop. BofA's position at 1.1700 and Goldman’s 1.1800 both suggest relatively higher targets, though they are still tentative amid weakening signals. For detailed positions, see /reports/mufg and /reports/bofa.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions highlight a moderate shift, with BofA adjusting its March target to 1.1700 and HSBC's downward revision to a more conservative 1.1050. Our Insight suggests potential volatility from ECB announcements scheduled for July 23, 2026, as indicated in /research/ecb-decision-preview-2026-07-23.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD trades at 1.1434, threatened by potential bearish break at 1.1400.
- 02200-SMA on H4 acts as a critical resistance for bearish control.
- 03Market positioned for ECB decision likely to impact euro volatility.
- 04Diverging forecasts indicate uncertainty ahead.
Market implications
Traders should closely monitor the 1.1400 support level, as a break could lead to further downside momentum. Additionally, the ECB's upcoming rate decision on July 23 could serve as a catalyst for volatility, potentially influencing our consensus target of 1.1700, which remains in play.
Risks to this view
A reversal in this bearish outlook could occur if the ECB signals a more hawkish stance than anticipated, potentially pushing EUR/USD above the 200-SMA. Furthermore, any strong economic data from the eurozone could challenge the bearish narrative.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Downward bias capped by 1.1390 support against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD downtrend remains intact with 1.1390 as near-term floor; break lower would signal fresh weakness in single currency.
Euro loses momentum as US Dollar recovers from intraday lows
USD recovery from intraday weakness signals renewed bid; EUR/USD momentum loss warrants monitor of technical support levels.
Euro: ECB pause seen limiting downside against US Dollar – BBH
ECB rate pause removes immediate EUR depreciation catalyst, capping USD/EUR upside despite Fed's higher-for-longer stance.
Euro: Policy divergence supports gains against US Dollar - DBS
ECB tightening bias relative to Fed pivot expectations creates structural support for EUR/USD above 1.10 on policy rate differentials.
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Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Sits 1.55% Below Dec-26 Consensus of 1.16
EUR/USD spot at 1.1421 trails the 29-firm Dec-26 median target of 1.16 by 1.55%, with a max-min dispersion of 0.20 across the panel.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1412, Median Target 1.16 — Week of July 20, 2026
EUR/USD trades 1.62% below the 29-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.16, with a 0.20-wide dispersion band exposing deep disagreement on the Fed-ECB terminal gap.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1438, Median Target 1.17 — Week of July 19, 2026
EUR/USD trades 2.24% below the 29-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.17, with a 0.20 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the dollar's path.