Euro pares gains against US Dollar but eyes fourth weekly advance
The euro is currently trading at 1.1446 against the US dollar, consolidating previous gains as it pivots for a potential fourth consecutive week of advancement. Despite the momentary dip, the backdrop suggests underlying bullish sentiment driven by positive economic indicators and a more dovish Federal Reserve stance. This week-to-week resilience positions the euro well if supportive data continues to emerge, particularly as we approach the ECB's policy updates.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently rests at 1.1634, derived from a median across several firms. The lower end is represented by Lloyds at 1.1288, while Morgan Stanley suggests a bullish outlook at 1.2000 for the December 2026 target.
How firms align
Firms like Deutsche Bank at 1.1800 for March 2026 and RBC at 1.1600 are aligned with the euro's outlook as suggested by the current price action. Notably, UOB and mizuho also echo a bullish sentiment with targets around 1.1700 by March 2026, reinforcing a positive consensus for the euro.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions indicate a slight upward adjustment, with Deutsche Bank revising their March target to 1.1800 while other firms maintain elevating outlooks, seen in our research published on August 21, 2026, regarding the ECB's rate path.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD currently at 1.1446, aiming for a fourth straight weekly advance.
- 02Recent data bolsters bullish sentiment on the euro's outlook.
- 03Watch for ECB policy decisions; consensus target sits at 1.1634.
Market implications
Market participants should monitor the euro's performance around the 1.1500 psychological level in the coming weeks, as any decisive movement could foreshadow stronger trends ahead. Additionally, upcoming economic releases could steer direction alongside our consensus target of 1.1634.
Risks to this view
Should the Federal Reserve signal a more aggressive rate hike path than anticipated, this could weaken the euro, potentially reversing current trends. Furthermore, unexpected economic data releases in the US could also challenge the euro's momentum.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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