FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 36 institutional desks. No promotion.
Recent strength in Eurozone PMI data bolsters the euro against the US dollar, supporting a bullish outlook for EUR/USD. This data helps to solidify the narrative of reduced near-term USD strength, paving the way for a potential shift in dynamics between the euro and dollar. As traders adjust their positions, the market is closely watching how this economic resilience might impact future rate discussions.
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently sits at 1.1634 (median across multiple firms), while firms like Morgan Stanley and UBS show the highest expectations at 1.2000 for March 2026. In contrast, Lloyds and Danske Bank project comparatively lower targets, reflecting a wider spread in sentiments among analysts.
Firms such as Investec and RBC are aligned with the bullish outlook, projecting targets of 1.1455 and 1.1600 respectively for March 2026 which supports the strengthening narrative for the euro. Conversely, firms like HSBC and BofA have targets that suggest more caution in their forecasts, with BofA at 1.1700 for the same tenor. Refer to our internal reports under /research/investec and /research/rbc for detailed insights on their positions.
Recent forecast revisions indicate growing optimism, as Deutsche Bank now anticipates a target of 1.1800 for March 2026, while UOB has also revised upwards to 1.1536. For further insights, see our relevant research, particularly /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-21.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
Market implications
The next focal point will be the upcoming ECB meeting where guidance on interest rates will be critical. A break above 1.1500 in EUR/USD could lead to further bullish positioning ahead of our consensus target of 1.1634.
Risks to this view
A significant shift in US economic data, particularly a surprising hawkish move from the Federal Reserve, could undermine the euro's recent gains and shift sentiment back toward USD strength. Key economic releases should be monitored closely.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
How we cover this story
Nomura's broad EUR outperformance call suggests positioning risk if ECB divergence from Fed/BoE/BoJ rate paths narrows or reverses.
Consensus USD weakness narrows near-term EUR/USD downside risk and supports higher spot into technical resistance.
USD weakness favors EUR/USD mean reversion; monitor whether softening reflects Fed pivot signals or temporary positioning relief.
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EUR/USD spot sits 0.59% above the 30-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 1.1634, with a 0.14 spread between Nordea's 1.24 bull case and Citi's 1.10 bear.
EUR/USD trades at 1.1677, roughly 0.66% above the 30-firm Dec-26 median of 1.16, with a 0.14 spread separating Nordea from Citi.
EUR/USD spot sits 0.56% above the 30-firm Dec-26 median of 1.16, with a 0.14 dispersion range signalling meaningful disagreement on the dollar path.