Tier 2 specialistfxstreet.comCentral banksFX
Loading…
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Institutional FX coverage in your inbox
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 37 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 37 institutional desks. No promotion.
The Euro remains under pressure against the US Dollar, currently trading at 1.1446, as the market awaits clarity on the European Central Bank's future rate decisions. OCBC's insight underscores the emerging risks of a range-bound trading environment, reflecting an uncertain economic backdrop. As expectations for ECB policy remain high, any deviation in guidance could lead to notable volatility in EUR/USD.
Our consensus EUR/USD target is 1.1700 (median across firms), with RBC at the higher end (1.2000) and Stanchart at the lower end (1.1400). This points to a market that is split on future Euro strength, as evidenced by varied forecasts across firms. OCBC's perspective aligns closely with the lower end of this spectrum, indicating potential downside risks in the near term.
While OCBC highlights the potential for a range-bound scenario, firms like Morgan Stanley and CIBC project more bullish targets of 1.2000 for March 2026, signaling a divergence in expectations. Conversely, Stanchart's lower target of 1.1400 suggests a more cautious approach, contrasting with OCBC's focus on uncertainty in the Euro's trade range.
Recent revisions highlight a divergence of opinion, with UBS raising its March 2026 target to 1.2000, while Stanchart appears more conservative at 1.1400 as of September 4. For deeper insights, refer to our research on recent consensus trends at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-08.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
Market implications
Traders should closely monitor the upcoming ECB decision on September 10, which may provide crucial direction for EUR/USD. A sustained level above 1.1700 would signal stronger support for the Euro, whereas continued trading below 1.1400 may encourage further bearish positioning.
Risks to this view
A reversal in Euro sentiment could occur if the ECB signals an aggressive path to rate cuts or falters in its inflation targets, potentially leading EUR/USD to extend losses below the critical support of 1.1400.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
How we cover this story
EUR/USD 1.1585 support breach would signal resumption of downtrend; monitor for break below key technical level.
Articles FOMC preview: Fed set to hike 25bp in recalibration move Published 14:39 FX Rates United States Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download We changed our view to a 25bp Federal Reserve rate hike in September in the wake of Chair Kevin Wa
Articles Bank of Japan preview: 25bp hike incoming Published 10:40 Japan Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download The Bank of Japan meets on 18 September to set rates. A 25bp hike to 1.25% is widely expected, with the market close to pricing in
Articles FX Daily: CPI can seal the deal on a Fed hike Published 07:54 FX Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download The bond market remains in turmoil, but this time the USD is reacting positively. This tentative rebuilding of a USD-back-end yie
EUR/USD spot sits 0.82% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.17, with a 0.14-handle dispersion pointing to unresolved macro disagreement.
On 2026-09-10, the European Central Bank raised its policy rate to 2.50% from 2.25%. Here is where the major banks now see the currency heading.
EUR/USD trades at 1.1640, a 0.51% discount to the 30-firm Dec-26 consensus of 1.17, with a 0.14 spread separating Nordea from Citi.