Euro: Recovery against US Dollar supported by data – BBH
The Euro is experiencing a noteworthy recovery against the US Dollar, bolstered by recent positive economic data from the Eurozone, which indicates reduced pressure on the greenback as a safe haven. Despite previous lows, the current momentum is supporting the EUR/USD pair at 1.1446 and fostering optimism among traders about the European economy's resilience. This sentiment shift comes at a critical time, as we see forecasts aligning towards an upward trajectory, suggesting potential for further gains.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD stands at 1.1700 (median across firms), with the range spanning from 1.1200 to 1.2000. Notably, Morgan Stanley and UBS are among the more bullish forecasters, both setting a target of 1.2000 for March 2026, suggesting that the market sentiment is shifting towards a stronger Euro.
How firms align
Firms like RBC and Investec have positioned their targets at 1.1600 and 1.1455 for March 2026 respectively, which aligns with the current recovery narrative. In contrast, Danske Bank holds a more cautious view with a 1.1866 target for March, indicating some divergence in expectations among analysts regarding the sustainability of the Euro's upward momentum. See /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path for further details.
What the data shows
Recent revisions indicate a general optimism towards the Euro, with UOB adjusting its March 2026 forecast to 1.1536. This aligns with the broader consensus that suggests an upward trend for EUR/USD, reinforcing the recovery narrative. Our research from earlier this month highlights a consensus expectation of 1.1700 as a key resistance level that the Euro might breach in the near term.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD currently trades at 1.1446, showing resilience amidst improving Eurozone data.
- 02Market sentiment is shifting; expect a challenge of the 1.1700 resistance soon.
- 03Bullish forecasts from firms suggest a positive outlook, caution on volatility remains.
- 04Watch for upcoming data releases that could further influence these trends.
Market implications
Investors should keep an eye on the 1.1700 level, as breaking above this could signal a more sustained rally in the Euro. Additionally, upcoming Eurozone economic indicators could provide further insights into whether this recovery has legs. Our consensus supports speculative positioning towards this upper target range of 1.2000 by June 2026.
Risks to this view
A reversal in this bullish sentiment could occur if upcoming Eurozone data disappoints or if the Federal Reserve signals a more aggressive stance towards interest rates, potentially reinforcing the USD’s safe-haven status. A strong shift in US economic performance could also undermine the current Euro recovery narrative.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Further gains eyed toward 1.1800 against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD technical target of 1.1800 suggests directional bias toward euro strength; traders should monitor resistance levels and macro catalysts driving momentum.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Corrects further as US Dollar extends recovery
USD strength momentum extends EUR/USD correction, likely testing technical support levels watched by systematic traders and hedge funds.
Morning briefing: EUR/USD is expected to regain momentum above 1.1700
Technical break above 1.1700 may attract momentum flows; watch for ECB/Fed divergence confirmation to validate further EUR/USD upside.