Euro: Upside bias targets 1.1725 against US Dollar – UOB
The Euro shows a potential upside trajectory, with the UOB report targeting 1.1725 against the USD. Current market sentiment highlights the Euro's resilience, particularly as recent economic data supports growth in the Eurozone. This bullish outlook adds weight to the recent consensus expectations of 1.1700 for March 2026, with various firms anticipating targets that align closely with UOB's position.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is 1.1700 (median across firms), with ING and Morgan Stanley reflecting similar positive sentiment at 1.1700 and 1.2000 for March. The spreads among firms range from as low as 1.1200 to as high as 1.2000, indicating a generally constructive view for the Euro against the Dollar.
How firms align
UOB's target of 1.1725 resonates well with firms like RBC and Deutsche Bank, which are both projecting March targets at 1.1700 and 1.1800, respectively. This alignment suggests a consensus that favors the Euro's appreciation, as seen in our reports from RBC and Deutsche Bank.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions show an upward shift among key players, with Deutsche Bank recently revising its March target to 1.1800. Our earlier insights, particularly from the consensus check on August 20, highlight the ongoing divergence, with the spot price around 1.1677 compared to the median of 1.16, signifying a bullish trend.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Firm consensus peaks at 1.1700 for March 2026, reflecting optimism for the Euro.
- 02Watch for a breakthrough above 1.1725 to signal stronger Euro momentum.
- 03Key resistance is set at 1.1750, a level traders will monitor closely.
- 04Recent upward revisions from Deutsche Bank reinforce the bullish outlook.
Market implications
The Euro's ability to breach 1.1725 will be critical in informing short-term positions, especially leading up to important ECB announcements. With our consensus target at 1.1700, a sustained move past this level could trigger further bullish sentiment in the market.
Risks to this view
A reversal in Euro strength could occur if upcoming macroeconomic data fails to support growth or if the ECB signals a shift towards dovish monetary policy. Negative surprises in Eurozone inflation or growth metrics would likely lead to a reassessment of these bullish targets.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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