Euro: Upside bias within defined band against US Dollar – UOB
The Euro exhibits an upside bias within a defined range against the US Dollar, supported by a bearish sentiment towards the USD. With current spot rates at 1.1678, any breach above the established resistance may indicate a shift in momentum favoring the Euro. UOB suggests monitoring these levels closely, as they could inform trading strategies amidst upcoming economic events.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700 (median across 11 firms), while projections range from 1.1200 (Danske Bank) to 1.2300 (Morgan Stanley). The current sentiment aligns with the bullish outlook indicated by UOB, especially as some firms such as RBC and Nomura echo similarly optimistic targets around this level.
How firms align
Aligned with the headline's perspective, firms like RBC project Mar26 at 1.1600 while Nomura also supports a bullish stance at 1.1700 for the same tenor. For further context on specific targets, see our internal reports for these firms: /research/rbc and /research/nomura.
What the data shows
Recent revisions by Scotiabank have hiked their Mar26 projection to 1.1734, emphasizing a favorable outlook for the Euro. Additionally, the ongoing analysis suggests sentiment remains buoyant moving into market catalysts that could further support the Euro's performance against the USD, as seen in our coverage from /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-10.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Bullish EUR/USD positioning noted around 1.17, focused on resistance levels.
- 02Monitor for breaks above established resistance; could signal upward momentum.
- 03Upcoming Fed decision (Sep 16) may influence USD direction.
- 04Positioning indicates potential for shifts in Euro strength amidst macroeconomic events.
Market implications
Traders should keep a close watch on resistance levels above the current spot and align their strategies with the consensus target of 1.1700. The upcoming Fed rate decision is a key event that may further influence USD dynamics and therefore affect the EUR/USD trajectory.
Risks to this view
Should the Euro break below current support levels or if the Fed's decision substantially alters market perceptions of the USD, it could invalidate the bullish outlook. Moreover, any unexpected economic data from the Eurozone could also challenge this perspective.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story