EUR/USD Price Forecast: Loses traction to near 1.1450 as bearish trend tests lower Bollinger support
The EUR/USD continues to struggle, currently trading near 1.1567, as bearish momentum tests the lower Bollinger support around 1.1450. A break below this level would further validate the bearish structure, suggesting a potential decline towards lower technical support levels. Market sentiment remains unfavorable towards the euro, reflecting a composite bullish sentiment for the USD at 0.65 as traders adjust their positioning in response to macroeconomic indicators. With our consensus pointing to a 2026 target around 1.1700, the implications of a bearish breach may prompt market participants to rethink their exposure.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700 (median across several firms), indicating a slight shift in sentiment compared to recent bearish pressures. The range from our contributing firms reflects variability, with UBS holding the upper position at 1.2000 while Citi sits at the lower bound of 1.1300. fxstreet.com's recent bearish forecast aligns with concerns over sustaining bullish levels under current trends.
How firms align
Recent targets from firms such as DBS, which sees 1.1700 for March and 1.1900 by June 2026, reflect optimism, contrasting with the headline's bearish outlook. In particular, Barclays maintains a March target of 1.1700, while citi's approach, indicating a lower 1.1300, emphasizes a more cautious stance. For detailed assessments, refer to our internal reports on each firm.
What the data shows
Recent revisions have also tightened forecasts, with firms like Deutsche Bank adjusting their March target to 1.1800, indicating a slight bullish pivot. Our published research highlights that EUR/USD trades 3.3% below the Dec-26 consensus of 1.20, signifying a divergence worth watching closely as markets adapt to changing conditions.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01A breakdown below 1.1450 confirms a bearish trend for EUR/USD.
- 02EUR/USD's current stance signals traders might reconsider their long positions.
- 03Market eyes technical support levels closely, particularly near 1.1450.
- 04A convergence of firm targets suggests a potential shift in sentiment.
Market implications
Next, focus on the 1.1450 support level; a breach may trigger further selling pressure toward lower targets. Keep an eye on the evolving consensus target of 1.1700 as economic data releases are expected to impact trader sentiment.
Risks to this view
A move above the 1.1700 range could invalidate the current bearish view, particularly if eurozone economic data surprises to the upside, altering sentiment toward the euro. Key announcements from the ECB will also play a critical role in shaping the narrative moving forward.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro weakens against US Dollar as hawkish Fed bets hog limelight
Market repricing Fed hold probability higher amid hawkish rhetoric, widening rate differential favoring USD/EUR longs.
Euro: Pressured as US Dollar stays firm – Danske Bank
USD strength persisting creates headwind for EUR positioning; monitor if dollar momentum extends into risk assets or remains defensive-driven.
Euro: Consolidation before potential slide against US Dollar – UOB
UOB technical outlook suggests EUR/USD weakness ahead, implying near-term USD strength following consolidation phase.
Euro steadies as the US Dollar eases, but hawkish Fed bets limit upside
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