Morning briefing: EUR/USD can test support at 1.1300
The EUR/USD pair is approaching critical support at the 1.1300 level, indicating a potential for further downside momentum fueled by expectations of a continued strong U.S. dollar. Recent technical breakdowns signal sustained USD strength as traders reassess the relative monetary policy shifts between the ECB and the Fed. As positioning weighs heavily on market sentiment, the implications of a breach below this key support may trigger adjustments in market perceptions surrounding future ECB rate hikes.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700 (median across 12 firms), with firms like RBC and CIBC providing higher targets in the range of 1.2000, while Morgan Stanley's projection reaches an optimistic 1.2300. This contrasts sharply with the sub-1.1500 targets from firms like Lloyds and tmgm, underscoring a divergence within market expectations.
How firms align
Firms like SocGen and Nomura are more aligned with current levels, both targeting 1.1700 for March 2026, thus supporting the sentiment from the headline about potential weakening. Meanwhile, BofA holds a contrary stance, projecting a low of 1.1200 for March 2026, which indicates significant bearish sentiment that deviates from the consensus view. Further insights can be found in our related report on /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-28.
What the data shows
Recent forecast adjustments have shown BofA revising its March target to 1.1700 from 1.1200, suggesting a renewed optimism among certain market participants. Our research indicates a notable gap between current spot prices and the consensus median, which is typically subject to significant shifts as market conditions evolve. See insights from /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-27.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD is testing 1.1300; a breach may signal further USD strengthening.
- 02Traders need to watch support levels closely for potential position adjustments.
- 03Market sentiment remains bearish on the EUR, with expectations of lower ECB rates.
- 04Speculative positioning may shift if US economic data trends support Fed policies.
Market implications
The next key level to monitor is 1.1300; a breach could intensify bearish sentiment and push targets lower across the board. Upcoming U.S. economic data releases will be crucial in shaping market expectations and may affect our consensus number of 1.1700 amid evolving narratives.
Risks to this view
A reversal in this view could occur if unexpected positive developments emerge from the Eurozone, leading to a more hawkish ECB stance, or if U.S. economic data points towards softness that diminishes Fed rate hike prospects.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Monthly outlook mixed, daily chart remains bearish
Daily technicals point lower for EUR/USD despite mixed monthly context; watch for breakdown confirmation below key support levels.
EUR/USD: Measured ECB tightening to support Euro – TD Securities
ECB tightening cycle expected to provide structural support for EUR/USD, reducing near-term USD strength relative to euro.
What is driving the US Dollar to multi-month highs against the Euro as PCE data approaches?
USD strength ahead of PCE print reflects market pricing for higher-for-longer US rates relative to ECB easing cycle expectations.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: At make or a break near 1.1330
Bank desks on this topic
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Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1349, Median Target 1.17 — Week of September 30, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 3% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.17, with a 0.14 dispersion range exposing deep disagreement on Fed-ECB path divergence.
EUR/USD Trades 3% Below Consensus as 30-Firm Median Holds 1.17
EUR/USD spot at 1.1342 sits 3.06% below the 30-firm Dec-26 consensus of 1.17, with a 0.14 dispersion range exposing deep disagreement on the Fed-ECB rate path.
EUR/USD Consensus vs Spot Gap: Week of September 29, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 3.12% below the 30-firm Dec-26 median target of 1.17, exposing a consensus that remains structurally bullish even as the pair trades at 1.1335.