Morning briefing: EUR/USD could trade within 1.1550-1.1650
EUR/USD is currently hovering around 1.1446 and is expected to trade in a range of 1.1550 to 1.1650 as analysts weigh geopolitical risks and central bank policies. The prevailing sentiment remains neutral for both the USD and EUR, indicating a cautious market tone. This range-bound view matters as traders assess potential moves ahead of key economic data releases that could influence directional bias.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target aligns closely with the midpoint of the current trading range at 1.1700 (median across firms). Notably, firms like Morgan Stanley are predicting a higher target of 1.2000 for March 2026, while Stanchart is more conservative at 1.1400 for the same tenor.
How firms align
Some firms are diverging from the headline's range view, with RBC targeting 1.1600 for March, which slightly overlaps with the expected range while ING aligns with the higher end, forecasting 1.1700. On the contrary, Stanchart's position is notably lower at 1.1400, suggesting a more cautious approach.
What the data shows
Recent revisions highlight a range of perspectives, with UBS increasing its March 2026 target to 1.2000, indicating rising bullishness. Published research indicates that the spot has consistently hovered near the median target of 1.17, indicating a potential ceiling for prudent traders. Relevant insights can be found in our previous publications, such as /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-02.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD expected to trade in a tight range between 1.1550 and 1.1650.
- 02Traders should prepare for volatility around upcoming economic data.
- 03A break above 1.1700 could signal a bullish move towards 1.2000.
- 04Watch for signals from the ECB's policy direction.
Market implications
Key economic releases in the coming week will be crucial for EUR/USD directionality, particularly if the pair can break above 1.1700. Our consensus target at 1.1700 is also a critical level to monitor for potential breakout signals.
Risks to this view
If U.S. economic data unexpectedly strengthens, the dollar could gain traction, resulting in a shift below the 1.1400 level, which would invalidate the bullish range view.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Trading near 1.16 against US Dollar as yields rise – Danske Bank
Rising yields typically reflect stronger growth or hawkish policy expectations; EUR/USD pressure at 1.16 suggests USD strength from higher US rate premia.
Euro: Downside risk persists toward 1.1550 against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD downside bias toward 1.1550 signals technical weakness that may reinforce USD strength positioning in short-term trades.