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EUR/USD trades at 1.1592 as of September 1, 2026, roughly 0.92% below the cross-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.17 — a gap that reflects a broadly bullish consensus that spot has not yet validated. The full EUR/USD bank forecast table aggregates 30 desks, with target dispersion of 0.14 between the most and least constructive firms.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Sep 1, 2026): 1.1592
- Cross-firm consensus median (Dec-26): 1.17
- Dispersion (max − min, all 30 firms): 0.14
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −0.92%
- Most bullish: Nordea at 1.24
- Most bearish: Citi at 1.10
Where Does Each Desk Stand?
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Citi | 1.10 | bearish |
| BofA | 1.12 | bullish |
| GS | 1.12 | bullish |
| BNS | 1.12 | neutral |
| JPM | 1.13 | bullish |
| SG | 1.14 | bullish |
| StanChart | 1.16 | bullish |
| DB | 1.1668 | bullish |
| ING | 1.17 | neutral |
| UOB | 1.18 | neutral |
| Rabo | 1.18 | neutral |
| MUFG | 1.18 | bullish |
| MS | 1.215 | bullish |
| CBK | 1.22 | bullish |
Why Does EUR/USD Trade Below a Bullish Consensus?
Three macro drivers dominate the published rationale across desks, and none has fully materialised in spot.
Front-end rate spreads. The consensus bull case rests on a narrowing of the 2-year US–German rate differential. MS, which carries the highest target among the named desks at 1.215 — raised from 1.16 — argues that Fed easing will compress the short-end spread faster than ECB cuts widen it. Spot has not moved to reflect that compression, suggesting the market is either sceptical of the Fed's pace or pricing residual US exceptionalism into the dollar.
ECB terminal-rate path. ING anchors its 1.17 target on an ECB that pauses before the Fed does, leaving the euro supported by a relatively higher policy floor into year-end. The desk trimmed its target from 1.18, acknowledging that the ECB's forward guidance has softened at the margin — a concession that the rate-support argument is less clean than it appeared earlier in the year.
Terminal-rate dispersion. The 0.14 range between Nordea's 1.24 and Citi's 1.10 is wide by historical standards for a G10 major at a four-month horizon. Citi — the lone bearish holdout among the 30 firms — invokes the risk that ECB rate cuts accelerate beyond current pricing, eroding the carry advantage that underpins the bullish majority. BofA targets 1.12 despite a bullish stance label, reflecting a view that near-term dollar resilience delays, rather than cancels, the eventual EUR move higher.
The common thread: every bullish desk is pricing a future rate-spread outcome, not a current one. Spot at 1.1592 is pricing what is observable today.
Which Revisions Matter Most This Week?
No fresh pair-specific news crossed the tape in the seven days through September 1. That absence itself is informative: the gap between spot and consensus has not narrowed because no catalyst has forced a reassessment.
The most consequential recent revisions in the table are directionally opposed. MS lifted its target from 1.16 to 1.215, the largest upward revision among the named desks, citing accelerating Fed easing expectations. StanChart moved the other way, cutting from 1.20 to 1.16, now barely above spot. ING trimmed from 1.18 to 1.17. The net effect on the median is modest, but the divergence in revision direction — one desk adding conviction, two pulling back — captures the uncertainty around timing rather than direction.
Rabo raised its target from 1.14 to 1.18, a 400-pip lift that reflects a more aggressive ECB pause scenario. That revision, combined with MS's upgrade, kept the median from drifting lower despite the StanChart and ING cuts.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current EUR/USD consensus forecast for December 2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 30 firms stands at 1.17 as of September 1, 2026, implying roughly 0.92% upside from the live spot of 1.1592.
How wide is the disagreement among bank forecasters?
Dispersion — measured as the difference between the highest and lowest targets across all 30 firms — is 0.14, spanning Nordea's 1.24 to Citi's 1.10. That range is broad for a four-month horizon on a G10 pair.
Which firm is most bullish on EUR/USD right now?
Nordea carries the highest Dec-26 target in the 30-firm panel at 1.24. Among the 14 most recently updated desks, MS is the most bullish at 1.215, a target raised from 1.16.
What would force consensus to converge toward spot?
Three conditions would pressure the bullish majority to revise lower: a Fed that pauses or reverses its easing cycle faster than priced, an ECB that cuts more aggressively than the current path implies — compressing the rate differential in the wrong direction for EUR bulls — or a sustained deterioration in eurozone growth data that undermines the structural euro recovery narrative. Any combination of these would likely pull the median target toward the 1.12–1.14 range currently occupied by JPM and SG, and give Citi's 1.10 bearish anchor considerably more company.
→ See the full MS FX outlook for the most recently upgraded Dec-26 EUR/USD target in the consensus panel.
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