Morning briefing: EUR/USD gains momentum above 1.1400
The EUR/USD pair has gained traction, pushing above 1.1400, with the current spot at 1.1434, indicating bullish sentiment in the market. This level break suggests potential for further tests of resistance as traders assess whether momentum can hold. The market's bullish stance on the euro and bearish lean on the dollar underscores a divergence in economic outlooks, making this upward movement particularly significant amid ongoing ECB policy discussions.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700 (median across firms), reflecting a generally optimistic view from the market. The spread of forecasts ranges from a low of 1.1000 from Citi to a high of 1.2200 from Commerzbank, demonstrating varying degrees of bullish sentiment among firms. This aligns with the recent push above 1.1400, corroborated by the stronger targets from firms like BofA and Goldman.
How firms align
Goldman and BofA share the bullish outlook with their March target forecasts at 1.1800 and 1.1700 respectively, supporting the recent momentum above 1.1400. On the other hand, Citi's bearish positioning at 1.1300 for the same tenor stands in contrast to the prevailing market sentiment. Detailed insights into their forecasts can be found in our internal reports for each firm, notably /research/goldman and /research/bofa.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions indicate an upward adjustment from BofA, now targeting 1.1700 by March, which is a clear sign of increased bullish sentiment. Additionally, the consensus check from /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-07-22 highlights the market's anticipation of extended upward movement, with resistance levels now essential to monitor as momentum builds.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD breaks above 1.1400, current spot at 1.1434.
- 02Watch for sustained momentum; higher resistance could be tested.
- 03Key catalyst: ECB policy signals influencing further EUR performance.
- 04Potential resistance at higher levels; firm targets support bullish outlook.
Market implications
Investors should monitor the 1.1400 level closely for continued support. Upcoming ECB meeting on July 23 will be crucial for gauging future euro strength. Our consensus target of 1.1700 indicates room for potential gains if momentum sustains.
Risks to this view
A reversal of this bullish outlook could occur if the ECB signals a more dovish stance than expected, particularly if inflation data fails to support rate hikes. Market volatility around the upcoming ECB decision poses a risk to the current EUR momentum.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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