Morning briefing: EUR/USD holds above crucial support at 1.1300
The EUR/USD pair is showing resilience above the critical support level of 1.1300, currently trading at 1.1446. This stability reflects the market's cautious optimism amid a backdrop of neutral sentiment towards both the USD and EUR. The current position marks significant consolidation as traders eye potential upward momentum, given the consensus forecast of a median target at 1.1700 for March 2026 across various firms. The implications of maintaining this support are crucial; a failure to do so could trigger a reassessment of positions as seen in recent trading patterns.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across firms), with firms like RBC and HSBC projecting 1.1600 and 1.1700 respectively, at the upper end of the spectrum, while Danske Bank leans towards a lower 1.1100 for December 2026. The headline's emphasis on the 1.1300 support aligns with our data, as it highlights the ongoing tussle in the market.
How firms align
Notably, firm projections reveal a divergence of views; SocGen stands at 1.1700 for March 2026, suggesting alignment with a bullish outlook, contrasted by Danske Bank forecasting a cautious 1.1866 for March but significantly lower targets thereafter. For a deeper comparison, see our reports on individual firms: /reports/socgen and /reports/danskebank.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions have largely favored a bullish stance, with BofA raising its March 2026 target to 1.1700. This uptick, contrasted with firm projections, hints at a market preparing for potential upward revision in response to supportive data from the Eurozone. Insights from our published research, particularly /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-30, bolster this positioned outlook for EUR/USD.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD holding above 1.1300 highlights market confidence in support levels.
- 02Traders should monitor firm projections; divergence seen with SocGen expecting 1.1700.
- 03Focus on March 2026 target of 1.1700 as a potential resistance point.
- 04A sustained hold above 1.1300 may lead to bullish actions towards the 1.1700 target.
Market implications
Next, market participants should watch the EUR/USD pair closely as it tests the 1.1300 support level. Any upward movement towards the consensus target of 1.1700 could signal a stronger bullish trend. Scheduled central bank announcements or macroeconomic data releases may serve as significant catalysts in the coming weeks.
Risks to this view
Failure to maintain the 1.1300 support could invalidate the current bullish outlook, potentially leading to a broader sell-off. Key economic indicators or shifts in monetary policy from the ECB or the Fed could prompt rapid changes in market sentiment, pressuring the EUR back down.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Monthly outlook mixed, daily chart remains bearish
Daily technicals point lower for EUR/USD despite mixed monthly context; watch for breakdown confirmation below key support levels.
EUR/USD: Measured ECB tightening to support Euro – TD Securities
ECB tightening cycle expected to provide structural support for EUR/USD, reducing near-term USD strength relative to euro.
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