Morning briefing: EUR/USD remains capped below 1.1700
The EUR/USD market continues to struggle under the weight of a structural resistance at 1.1700, which has kept euro bullishness in check. This resistance point not only aligns with the current technical picture but also raises concerns about a possible breakdown below 1.1446. Such a scenario would heighten demand for the USD, suggesting that market sentiment remains firmly rooted in favor of the dollar as the euro faces increasing headwinds.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is 1.1700 (median across 9 firms), with RBC and Investec betting on the upper end at 1.1700, while Lloyds marks the lower bound at 1.1331. [fxstreet.com]'s assessment rightly highlights the ongoing pressure below 1.1700, reinforcing a bearish outlook for the euro's near-term performance.
How firms align
Firms like Investec (targeting 1.1455 for Mar26) and UOB (1.1536) reflect a more cautious stance in contrast to the headline's bearish implications. Conversely, RBC's optimism at 1.1600 for March aligns closely with the headline's technical narrative, indicating a possibility for euro appreciation should resistance levels be broken. See our /reports/investec and /reports/rbc for detailed positioning.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions hint at a tightening consensus, with ING holding firm at 1.1700 across their March and December targets. Our latest published research emphasizes this divergence; see /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path for insights on how market expectations have evolved in light of current spot levels.
How firms align with this view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD resistance at 1.1700 limits bullish moves; current spot at 1.1446.
- 02Tech breakdown below 1.1446 may trigger stronger USD demand.
- 03Firm expectations vary widely, with targets ranging from 1.1400 to 1.2000.
- 04Watch ECB signals for potential shifts in euro direction.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the 1.1446 support level, as a dip below could pave the way for more aggressive dollar buying. Upcoming ECB announcements may also influence the euro's trajectory and market sentiment towards the target of 1.1700.
Risks to this view
A stronger than expected economic report from the Eurozone or a dovish pivot from the Fed could challenge the current bearish sentiment. Such catalysts may force the euro above 1.1700, altering dollar demand significantly.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.40
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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