Weekly forex forecast: EUR/USD, XAU/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Bitcoin and more [Video]
This week, the EUR/USD pair sits at 1.1446, a critical juncture as forecasts show a broad range of expectations among analysts. With the consensus median target at 1.1700 for March 2026, the market remains balanced but cautious amid ongoing geopolitical and economic developments. The latest video analysis highlights potential volatility as traders position themselves ahead of key monetary policy announcements. These insights matter as they reflect the delicate balance in the market and potential shifts in sentiment going forward.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently sits at 1.1700 (median across firms), with Morgan Stanley at the high end (1.2000) and Standard Chartered at the low end (1.1400). The breadth of firm targets indicates differing strategic perspectives, with firms like RBC and ING suggesting a more bullish outlook in the longer term.
How firms align
Morgan Stanley has the highest Mar26 target at 1.2000, which aligns with a more optimistic market outlook, while Stanchart offers a more conservative view at 1.1400. According to our reports, this divergence reflects varied expectations regarding the ECB's monetary policy and inflation trajectory, contributing to the market's overall neutral sentiment.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions show some shifts, with Standard Chartered lowering their Mar26 target slightly to 1.1400, indicating a cautious stance in the face of current economic indicators. For further analysis, see our insights in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-30.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD currently trades at 1.1446 amidst a neutral sentiment.
- 02Consensus target for March 2026 is set at 1.1700, suggesting upside potential.
- 03Watch ECB policy changes as key catalysts for EUR moves.
- 04Divergence in firm targets indicates mixed market sentiment.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the 1.1500 resistance level closely. If the market manages to breach this point, it could signal a stronger bullish sentiment ahead of key upcoming data releases, particularly from the ECB. Our consensus number of 1.1700 remains a focal benchmark for the EUR/USD pair.
Risks to this view
A reversal could occur if inflation data surprises to the upside, prompting the ECB to adopt a hawkish stance unexpectedly. Such a shift would lead to reevaluation of firm targets, particularly if they trend below the 1.1400 mark set by Stanchart.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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