Poland’s GDP growth nears 4% in 2Q amid strong investment and net exports
The Polish economy demonstrated notable resilience, with GDP growth revised to 3.9% year-on-year in 2Q26, driven by rebounds in fixed investment and net exports. Per the full note source, this uptick from the 3.5% in 1Q26 underlines a recovery, particularly in construction and industrial sectors, which are vital for ongoing economic health. While this performance sets a solid backdrop for the latter half of the year, cautious forecasts of 3.4% growth remain, indicating a potentially volatile trajectory ahead. The combination of external geopolitical pressures, especially from energy market disruptions, may continue to loom over future economic forecasts.
What the desk is arguing
The desk maintains that Poland's GDP growth acceleration to 3.9% in 2Q26 signals robust underlying economic strength, particularly after a challenging first quarter. This growth was supported by a resurgence in fixed investment and a positive contribution from net exports, as detailed in the bank's analysis.
The improvements encompass significant areas of the economy; gross value added in the industrial sector soared by 6.5% year-on-year, reflecting an uptick from previous quarters. Construction also rebounded significantly, contributing to the growth narrative, suggesting that Poland is positioning itself well for future performance despite global uncertainties.
Where it sits in our coverage
Currently, our consensus target for the PLN/USD exchange rate is 1.075, for which we derive targets from various sources: - jpmorgan: 1.10 by Mar26 - bofa: 1.04 by Mar26
This optimistic outlook from jpmorgan, while slightly above the consensus, diverges from bofa, whose more cautious stance aligns with potential geopolitical risks. Given our target sits centrally in the range underscored by the firms, this reflects a balanced approach, acknowledging Poland's recovery while remaining wary of external headwinds.
How other firms see it
Firms like jpmorgan and citi express optimism regarding Polish economic indicators, aligning with our analysis. Conversely, bofa and deutsche take a more skeptical perspective, highlighting vulnerabilities in the forecast driven by geopolitical factors.
Market players should monitor the PLN/USD pair closely as recent data suggests downward pressure could emerge if external conditions do not stabilize. The trajectory of the EUR/PLN exchange rate is also worth observing, given its reactive nature to regional economic shifts.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Poland’s GDP growth accelerated to 3.9% YoY in 2Q26, revised up from earlier estimates.
- 02Key sectors showing recovery include construction and industrial activity, with gross value added in industry rising by 6.5% YoY.
- 03Cautious optimism remains as analysts forecast 3.4% growth for 2026 amid geopolitical risks.
- 04The PLN/USD rate presents a mixed outlook according to differing perspectives from major banks.
Market implications
Traders should keep an eye on the PLN/USD pairing, especially as economic indicators fluctuate amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. A breach below 1.04 could signal deeper issues affecting the Polish economy, while a rise towards 1.10 would reinforce a bullish sentiment on the PLN.
Risks to this view
The main risk to this outlook would be a sharp escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, particularly those affecting energy prices or trade relations, which could dampen investor sentiment towards Poland and its economic recovery efforts.
Articles Poland’s GDP growth nears 4% in 2Q amid strong investment and net exports Published 13:56 Poland Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Statistics Poland revised GDP growth up to 3.9% YoY in 2Q from the 3.8% flash estimate. The breakdown showed a long-awaited rebound in fixed investment and a positive contribution from net exports. A strong second quarter provides a solid starting point for the rest of the year, but given the uncertain outlook, we stick to our forecast of 3.4% growth in 2026 Adam Antoniak Poland's second-quarter GDP has been revised up but we remain cautious on the outlook GDP growth gained momentum in 2Q26 The StatOffice revised Poland’s GDP growth to 3.9% year-on-year in the second quarter from 3.8% YoY reported earlier and 3.5% YoY in the first quarter.
Seasonally-adjusted data indicates that economic growth accelerated from 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in 1Q26 to 1.0% in 2Q26. Despite global headwinds stemming from the energy market turmoil triggered by the conflict in the Middle East, Poland’s economy proved resilient and recovered from a weak first quarter when activity in construction and industry was hit by bad weather. Services still driving value added growth, but industry and construction rebounded Gross value added advanced by 3.6% YoY in 2Q26 following an increase of 3.3% YoY in the previous quarter.
Solid growth was still reported in services, which accounted for more than half of total gross value added (around 2ppt). The improvement was also seen in industry, where gross value added rose by 6.5% YoY vs. 4.1% in 1Q26. After a softer start to the year, activity in domestic industry improved in subsequent months in tandem with improving business conditions in European markets.
This improvement also took place in construction, where output jumped by 3.0% YoY in 2Q26 after a drop of 4.5% in 1Q26. The construction sector was catching up after severe weather dampened activity earlier in the year. Further slowdown in private consumption growth In line with our expectations, the second quarter of this year brought a further slowdown in household spending.
Household consumption increased by 2.8% YoY in 2Q26 from 3.3% in 1Q26. Wage growth continued to ease, while the conflict in the Middle East pushed up crude oil and retail gasoline prices, boosting inflation and leaving households with less to spend on goods other than fuel. When assessing the outlook for consumption, it should be noted that households have significantly increased their saving rates in recent quarters, thereby building a buffer that could allow them to maintain relatively robust growth in spending even if growth in disposable income continues to slow (consumption smoothing).
Long-awaited rebound in fixed investment In 2Q26, investment activity finally improved visibly. Fixed investment jumped by 8.4% YoY, following growth of 2.4% YoY. Poor 1Q26 results were partly linked to subdued public investment, including deliveries of military equipment.
In recent months, activity accelerated significantly as projects implemented under the National Recovery Plan (NRP) kicked in. We expect investment activity to be strong in the second half of the year, with growth in gross fixed capital formation nearing a double-digit pace. In addition to fixed-asset investment, inventory changes also contributed positively to growth in the previous quarter, adding 0.1 percentage points to annual GDP growth.
Fixed investment improved in 2Q26 %YoY Source: GUS, ING. "> Source: GUS, ING. Positive contribution from foreign trade Despite mounting competitive pressure from Asia and a widening trade deficit with China, foreign trade remains one of the key strengths of the Polish economy. In 2Q26, exports of goods and services rose by 10.8% YoY while imports increased by 10.4% YoY in real terms, compared with 5.6% YoY and 6.1% YoY, respectively, in 1Q26.
The positive contribution of net exports amounted to 0.5ppts in 2Q26. GDP growth and its composition %YoY, ppts. Source: GUS, ING. "> Source: GUS, ING.
Favourable growth momentum, but elevated uncertainty persists The 2Q26 GDP data came as a positive surprise, with the economy proving remarkably resilient to the outbreak of the conflict in the Persian Gulf and the resulting rise in oil prices. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East had prompted us to revise down our GDP growth forecast for this year from 3.7% to 3.4%. Recent growth data provides a strong starting point for the second half of the year and increases upside risks to our revised forecast.
However, given the persistent uncertainty surrounding the medium-term impact of the prolonged US-Iran conflict on Poland's economy, we maintain our cautious 2026 GDP growth forecast of 3.4%. Net Exports Investments GDP Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument.
Read more Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Author Adam Antoniak Senior Economist, Poland Adam has about 20 years of experience in macroeconomic research. He has worked for leading financial institutions in Poland (Bank Pekao, Bank BPH), and members of international financial groups… In this article GDP growth gained momentum in 2Q26 Services still driving value added growth, but industry and construction rebounded Further slowdown in private consumption growth Long-awaited rebound in fixed investment Positive contribution from foreign trade Favourable growth momentum, but elevated uncertainty persists
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