Weekly forex forecast: EUR/USD, XAU/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Bitcoin and more [Video]
The forex market remains stable as we enter the new week, with the EUR/USD pair trading close to recent consensus levels. Despite a neutral sentiment surrounding the dollar and other major currencies, the divergence between current trading prices and forecasts suggests underlying volatility could emerge. As highlighted in the weekly forex forecast, traders are eyeing economic data and monetary policy signals that may drive these rates in the coming sessions.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently sits at 1.1634 (median across 11 firms), indicating a notable gap between the current spot of 1.1253 and future expectations. The most optimistic view comes from CIBC, targeting 1.2200 by June 2026, while UBS presents a more cautious stance with a target at 1.1300 for the same period.
How firms align
Rabobank and Barclays have aligned notably with the upper end of the forecast range, setting a target of 1.1700 for March 2026, reflecting a bullish outlook. On the other hand, BOFA recently revised its March target lower to 1.1500, indicating a contrasting view deserving attention. These firms are discussed in detail in our /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
What the data shows
The recent forecast revisions show a mixed sentiment among analysts, with Rabobank raising its targets recently, while Citi has taken a more bearish stance. Insights on this divergence can be explored further in our research reports, including /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-05.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Current EUR/USD trades at 1.1253, below consensus of 1.1634.
- 02Watch for economic data that could shift trader sentiment.
- 03Rabobank's March 2026 target of 1.1700 reinforces a bullish outlook.
- 04BOFA's bearish revision to 1.1500 highlights conflicting market views.
Market implications
Market participants should closely monitor upcoming U.S. and Eurozone economic indicators, as any surprises could shift perceptions of fair value. The consensus target of 1.1634 remains a key level to watch as traders reassess fundamentals against sentiment.
Risks to this view
Any substantial shift in U.S. economic data or a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance could negate the current bullish forecasts. Significant downside risks could also arise from geopolitical tensions affecting Eurozone stability.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Morning briefing: EUR/USD is bearish below 1.1300
EUR/USD breakdown below 1.1300 confirms technical weakness and may trigger stop-loss cascade in long positioning.
Euro: Fiscal stress and fewer ECB hikes weigh against US Dollar – BBH
Reduced ECB hiking cycle expectations and eurozone fiscal concerns create headwinds for EUR/USD despite broader dollar strength, suggesting tactical EUR support near-term.
Euro falls back below 1.1200 as US Dollar dominates despite weaker ISM Services PMI
USD strength persists despite softer ISM Services, suggesting safe-haven flows or Fed rate-hold expectations override growth concerns.