Barclays

FX Outlook 2026: Navigating the Turn

LIVE28 November 2025USD bearish

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NZD/USD

Name: Investment Bank FX Research Directory
Creator: FX Bank Forecast
License: https://fxbankforecast.com/terms
Keywords: bank FX research, investment bank reports, FX strategy, institutional research directory, bank forecasts

Recovery priced, yield headwind remains

Neutral

BARC Forecast Path

Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison

Key Drivers

RBNZ terminal

Growth recovery

Housing market

Dairy prices

AUD/NZD spread

All Firm Targets (Dec '26)

INGBullish0.6200

DBModerately Bullish0.6200

MSNeutral to Slightly Bullish0.6100

GSModerately Bullish0.6000

MUFGNeutral to Slightly Bullish0.6000

BofANeutral0.6000

BARCNeutral0.5900

JPMNeutral0.5900

Key Issues for 2026

1.RBNZ deep easing creates low yield headwind

2.Growth recovery underway but positioned for

3.Housing market rebound helps confidence

4.AUD/NZD upside limits NZD outperformance

Analysis Summary

NZD recovery capped by RBNZ deep easing and low yield status. Growth recovery underway but largely priced. Prefer AUD for commodity exposure. NZD/USD 0.59 modest target.

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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from eight institutional desks. No promotion.