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Barclays

FX Outlook 2026: Navigating the Turn

LIVE28 November 2025USD bearish
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Currency Views

Barclays per-currency outlook with bias, key drivers, live rates, and forecast targets

19 currencies shown
EUR
G10
↑ Moderately Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy EUR
Forecast path
EUR/USDQ1: 1.17 → Q4: 1.21
•Rate convergence Fed-ECB
•German fiscal expansion
JPY
G10
↑ Moderately Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy JPY
Forecast path
USD/JPYQ1: 155 → Q4: 149
•BoJ normalization
•Carry trade moderation
GBP
G10
↑ Strongly Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy GBP
Forecast path
GBP/USDQ1: 1.35 → Q4: 1.41
EUR/GBPQ1: 0.87 → Q4: 0.86
•Fiscal clarity post-budget
•BoE hawkish relative stance
CHF
G10
→ Neutral
Live
--
Direction
Buy CHF
Forecast path
USD/CHFQ1: 0.80 → Q4: 0.78
•Safe haven demand
•Low yield headwind
NOK
G10
↑ Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy NOK
Forecast path
EUR/NOKQ1: 11.35 → Q4: 10.78
USD/NOKQ1: 10.00 → Q4: 9.40
•Commodity demand
•European fiscal benefit
SEK
G10
↑ Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy SEK
Forecast path
EUR/SEKQ1: 10.55 → Q4: 10.08
USD/SEKQ1: 9.30 → Q4: 8.80
•European recovery leverage
•Rate sensitivity
AUD
G10
↑ Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy AUD
Forecast path
AUD/USDQ1: 0.66 → Q4: 0.69
•RBA higher for longer
•Green transition metals
NZD
G10
→ Neutral
Live
--
Direction
Buy NZD
Forecast path
NZD/USDQ1: 0.57 → Q4: 0.59
•RBNZ deep cuts
•Low yield headwind
CAD
G10
→ Neutral
Live
--
Direction
Buy CAD
Forecast path
USD/CADQ1: 1.39 → Q4: 1.36
•USD weakness driver
•USMCA risk manageable
USD
G10
↓ Moderately Bearish
Live
--
DXYQ1: 98.0 → Q4: 95.0
•Fed easing cycle
•Twin deficit headwinds
CNY
EM Asia
↑ Moderately Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy CNY
Forecast path
USD/CNYQ1: 7.02 → Q4: 6.90
•PBoC guidance
•Trade surplus
MXN
LatAm
↑ Moderately Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy MXN
Forecast path
USD/MXNQ1: 18.15 → Q4: 17.70
•Carry appeal
•Nearshoring
TRY
EMEA
↑ Moderately Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Sell TRY
Forecast path
USD/TRYQ1: 45.20 → Q4: 51.50
•High carry
•Managed depreciation
ZAR
EMEA
↑ Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy ZAR
Forecast path
USD/ZARQ1: 16.90 → Q4: 16.10
•Commodity ToT
•GNU stability
PLN
EMEA
↑ Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy PLN
Forecast path
USD/PLNQ1: 3.56 → Q4: 3.35
•EU fund inflows
•NBP near terminal
HUF
EMEA
↑ Moderately Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy HUF
Forecast path
EUR/HUFQ1: 372 → Q4: 345
USD/HUFQ1: 322 → Q4: 300
•High carry
•April election risk
BRL
LatAm
→ Neutral
Live
--
Direction
Buy BRL
Forecast path
USD/BRLQ1: 5.32 → Q4: 5.20
•October elections
•High carry
KRW
EM Asia
↑ Moderately Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy KRW
Forecast path
USD/KRWQ1: 1445 → Q4: 1390
•WGBI inclusion
•Tech recovery
INR
EM Asia
→ Neutral
Live
--
Direction
Buy INR
Forecast path
USD/INRQ1: 88.20 → Q4: 86.50
•RBI support
•Low beta

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