Barclays
FX Outlook 2026: Navigating the Turn
LIVE28 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesBullish
USD/TRY
TRY carry remains attractive despite nominal depreciation. Authorities committed
BARC Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
Carry appeal
Authorities' lira management
Real appreciation
Inflation convergence
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
JPMBullish53.50
DBNeutral52.50
MS52.00
MUFG52.00
BARCBullish51.50
BofANeutral51.00
ING50.50
GS50.00
Analysis Summary
TRY carry remains attractive despite nominal depreciation. Authorities committed to gradual lira management. Real appreciation continues to erode competitiveness but carry of 35%+ in nominal terms compensates. Best expressed via JPY-funded carry.