Barclays

FX Outlook 2026: Navigating the Turn

LIVE28 November 2025USD bearish

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USD/TRY

Name: Investment Bank FX Research Directory
Creator: FX Bank Forecast
License: https://fxbankforecast.com/terms
Keywords: bank FX research, investment bank reports, FX strategy, institutional research directory, bank forecasts

TRY carry is our top EM income trade. Managed depreciation keeps spot weakening

Moderately Bullish

BARC Forecast Path

Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison

Key Drivers

High carry

Managed depreciation

CBRT commitment

Inflation deceleration

JPY funding advantage

All Firm Targets (Dec '26)

JPMBullish53.50

DBNeutral52.50

MS52.00

MUFG52.00

BARCModerately Bullish51.50

BofANeutral51.00

ING50.50

GS50.00

Analysis Summary

TRY carry is our top EM income trade. Managed depreciation keeps spot weakening but total return remains attractive. Prefer JPY-funded TRY carry for maximum differential.

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