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Bank of America

FX Outlook 2026: Structural Dollar Headwinds

LIVE5 December 2025USD bearish
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Currency Views

Bank of America per-currency outlook with bias, key drivers, live rates, and forecast targets

19 currencies shown
EUR
G10
↑ Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy EUR
Forecast path
EUR/USDQ1: 1.17 → Q4: 1.22
•German fiscal expansion
•Narrowing Fed-ECB spread
JPY
G10
↑ Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy JPY
Forecast path
USD/JPYQ1: 154 → Q4: 147
•BoJ rate normalization
•Carry unwind risk
GBP
G10
↑ Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy GBP
Forecast path
GBP/USDQ1: 1.34 → Q4: 1.40
•Fiscal clarity
•BoE hawkish hold
CHF
G10
↑ Moderately Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy CHF
Forecast path
USD/CHFQ1: 0.80 → Q4: 0.76
•Safe haven demand
•SNB rate floor
NOK
G10
↑ Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy NOK
Forecast path
EUR/NOKQ1: 11.30 → Q4: 10.72
USD/NOKQ1: 9.95 → Q4: 9.35
•High G10 yield
•Cheap valuations
SEK
G10
↑ Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy SEK
Forecast path
EUR/SEKQ1: 10.60 → Q4: 9.90
USD/SEKQ1: 9.25 → Q4: 8.65
•European fiscal spillovers
•Rate sensitivity recovery
AUD
G10
↑ Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy AUD
Forecast path
AUD/USDQ1: 0.66 → Q4: 0.70
•RBA higher for longer
•Commodity demand
NZD
G10
→ Neutral
Live
--
Direction
Buy NZD
Forecast path
NZD/USDQ1: 0.57 → Q4: 0.60
•RBNZ deep cuts
•Growth recovery
CAD
G10
↓ Moderately Bearish
Live
--
Direction
Buy CAD
Forecast path
USD/CADQ1: 1.39 → Q4: 1.35
•USMCA renegotiation risk
•BoC easing cycle
USD
G10
↓ Bearish
Live
--
DXYQ1: 97.5 → Q4: 93.5
•Twin deficit deterioration
•Fed easing cycle
CNY
EM Asia
↑ Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy CNY
Forecast path
USD/CNYQ1: 7.00 → Q4: 6.85
•PBoC managed appreciation
•Trade surplus
MXN
LatAm
↑ Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy MXN
Forecast path
USD/MXNQ1: 18.10 → Q4: 17.30
•Nearshoring flows
•High carry
TRY
EMEA
→ Neutral
Live
--
Direction
Sell TRY
Forecast path
USD/TRYQ1: 45.00 → Q4: 51.00
•Managed depreciation
•High carry offset
ZAR
EMEA
↑ Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy ZAR
Forecast path
USD/ZARQ1: 16.80 → Q4: 15.80
•Commodity terms of trade
•GNU stability
PLN
EMEA
↑ Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy PLN
Forecast path
USD/PLNQ1: 3.55 → Q4: 3.28
•EU fund inflows
•NBP near terminal
HUF
EMEA
↑ Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy HUF
Forecast path
EUR/HUFQ1: 370 → Q4: 335
USD/HUFQ1: 320 → Q4: 292
•High carry
•April election risk
BRL
LatAm
↑ Moderately Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy BRL
Forecast path
USD/BRLQ1: 5.30 → Q4: 5.10
•October election risk
•High carry
KRW
EM Asia
↑ Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy KRW
Forecast path
USD/KRWQ1: 1440 → Q4: 1370
•WGBI inclusion flows
•Tech cycle recovery
INR
EM Asia
↑ Moderately Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy INR
Forecast path
USD/INRQ1: 88.00 → Q4: 85.50
•Portfolio flows improving
•RBI policy shift

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