Canadian consumers continued spending through another challenging quarter -- RBC data
The desk interprets the recent RBC analysis as an indicator of strong consumer resilience in Canada, despite ongoing economic pressures. Spending increased by 2.4% in Q2, excluding gas purchases, with discretionary spending up 3.7%, signaling consumer confidence and a potential foundation for further economic stability. As RBC forecasts continued consumer expenditure growth in H2, this context may bolster CAD's fundamentals. Per the full note source, upcoming retail sales reports will be pivotal in verifying these trends.
What the desk is arguing
The desk posits that robust consumer spending data, as noted by RBC, reflects a strengthening Canadian economy. This is underscored by a 2.4% growth in spending excluding gas prices, further complemented by a 3.7% increase in discretionary goods spending. These figures are a beacon of consumer confidence amid high energy costs and contribute to an optimistic outlook for more sustained spending through the second half of the year, per the commentary from RBC.
Furthermore, the surge in spending during events like the World Cup suggests a potential upturn in consumer behavior beyond baseline shopping trends, with 12.5% of total cardholder expenses directed towards food and beverages during the tournament period — a record high since RBC initiated this survey in 2018. If this optimistic trend continues, it should contribute positively to the CAD's strength.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our current consensus target for CAD is 1.075, reflecting a range between 1.04 and 1.12. Notable individual targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26) This perspective aligns with jpmorgan, indicating a bullish outlook for CAD, while contrasting with bofa, which is positioned more conservatively.
How other firms see it
jpmorgan and deutsche share a bullish outlook based on similar consumer spending analyses, while bofa remains cautious due to macroeconomic concerns, particularly around inflation and interest rate constraints affecting Canadian households. Key indicators to watch in conjunction with this sentiment include the upcoming retail sales data for Canada and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory, particularly its influence on USD/CAD dynamics.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01RBC reports 2.4% increase in consumer spending in Q2, excluding gas prices.
- 02Discretionary spending rose 3.7%, suggesting robust consumer confidence.
- 03Upcoming retail sales data on August 21 will provide critical insights into this trend.
- 04The food and beverage sector experienced record spending due to World Cup impact.
Market implications
Traders should focus on the upcoming retail sales data release on August 21, as a continuation of this positive trend could bolster CAD strength against the USD. Watch for levels around 1.075 for potential resistance.
Risks to this view
A shift in consumer sentiment, driven by unexpected increases in inflation or interest rates, could undermine the bullish outlook for CAD. Additionally, weaker-than-expected retail sales figures would pose a direct challenge to this thesis.
Canadian consumers accelerated spending in the second quarter and it wasn't just because of higher gasoline prices. RBC says that based on its cardholder data, spending rose 2.4% in the quarter excluding sales at gas stations. Moreover, spending on discretionary goods rose 3.7% from Q1. "Household and construction purchases saw its first quarterly gain since mid-2025, coinciding with early signs of renewed homebuyer interest.
Spending on clothing and apparel also strengthened after a slow start to the year," RBC said. RBC economists say they're optimistic that spending will continue in H2 despite high energy costs. As for the World Cup, RBC said there was a significant increase in spending at food and drink vendors over the tournament period.
That swelled spending in that category to 12.5% of total cardholder spending, the highest since the survey began in 2018. Canada next reports retail sales for June on August 21 while the US reports on retail sales this Friday. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
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