Capital markets discount a V-shaped recovery from COVID-19
The desk observes that capital markets may be overly optimistic regarding a V-shaped recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic, as highlighted in a recent discussion by Nordea on their market outlook. Despite lowered expectations prior to Q2 earnings announcements leading to a surprising rebound in Nordic company profits—averaging 20% better than estimates—investor reactions have remained cautious amid ongoing uncertainties. As institutional traders weigh recovery narratives, the desk advises vigilance on the trajectory of economic recovery and potential inflation signals as central banks maintain accommodative policies.
What the desk is arguing
The desk frames this as evidence that while market optimism paints a scenario of rapid recovery, the underlying economic conditions suggest a more nuanced approach may be warranted. Per the full note from Nordea, the improvement in corporate earnings stems largely from sharply reduced expectations rather than fundamental economic strength.
Moreover, the reported Q2 adjusted EBIT estimates were slashed by approximately 40%, signaling substantial fear ahead of earnings releases. However, the unexpected 20% average positive surprise highlights the extent to which markets may have priced in a scenario of economic contraction versus actual earnings resilience.
Where it sits in our coverage
Given a consensus target of 1.075 with a range between 1.04 and 1.12, the market sentiment exhibits a cautious optimism. Specific targets from notable firms include:
This desk's cautious outlook aligns with bofa, indicating a preference for a longer-term view awaiting more concrete signals of recovery rather than following the more buoyant stance of jpmorgan.
How other firms see it
Most aligned firms emphasize potential upside given improved earnings, while contrary firms like bofa advocate for caution, suggesting a prolonged recovery is likely. This divergence highlights the split in market sentiment as investors grapple with the pace of economic rebound.
Interconnectedness with major currency pairs such as EUR/USD could signal broader trends influenced by both monetary policy and international trade developments. Observing the USD/JPY trajectory may also provide insights into risk appetite and safe-haven flows as market participants adjust their expectations.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Markets are pricing in an overly optimistic view of a rapid economic recovery post-COVID-19.
- 02Nordea reports a significant positive surprise in Q2 earnings, leading to cautious investor sentiment.
- 03Expectations for growth remain tempered amid ongoing uncertainties post-pandemic.
- 04Markets may respond to central bank signals as the Federal Reserve and others maintain accommodative strategies.
Market implications
Traders should watch the resistance level around 1.08 in the EUR/USD pair, as breaching this could indicate stronger market momentum. Additionally, upcoming economic indicators reflecting inflation could impact positioning and risk sentiment, signaling changes in monetary policy outlooks.
Risks to this view
A resurgence in COVID-19 cases or slower-than-expected vaccine rollouts could derail the recovery narrative, leading to downward revisions in earnings forecasts and a shift back towards risk-off sentiment.
Nordea On Your Mind Capital markets discount a V-shaped recovery from COVID-19 24-09-2020 What is driving the recovery amid ongoing uncertainty about the direction of the Covid-19 pandemic? Our Nordic Equity Strategist Arvid Böhm discusses this and other topics with Viktor Sonebäck of our Thematics Research team. The interview is part of the latest Nordea On Your Mind report, "Coronavirus: Plan B".
In the latest Nordea On Your Mind report " Coronavirus: Plan B ", Viktor Sonebäck , Associate at Nordea Thematics, talked to Nordea's Nordic Equity Strategist Arvid Böhm (AB) about how Q2 interim reports were typically well received because expectations were lowered prior to their release - and how the ratio of upgrades to downgrades for EPS forecasts has turned positive. Arvid Böhm elaborates on what kind of recovery is being forecast, and what is actually priced in by markets. We also discuss key factors for several scenarios, such as a vaccine or therapy development, and the potential stickiness of central bank and government stimuli.
Q2 interim reports from listed Nordic companies have given us a first impression of how they have been impacted by COVID-19 and associated lockdowns. How would you summarise the outcomes for the second quarter versus expectations, and how have the quarterly results and the outlook comments given by management been received by investors? AB: In short, the Q2 reporting season saw profits falling off a cliff.
However, as we approached the start of the Q2 earnings season, expectations had been reduced sharply. Calculated against the estimates for Q2 as we entered this year, Nordic adjusted EBIT estimates had been slashed by around 40%; but as it turns out, this was too much. The positive surprise has been massive, with the average EBIT being close to 20% better than expected.
The market reaction, however, has been more tempered, and estimate revisions for the remainder of 2020 and 2021 as well. Actually, the market reaction on the day of the report has shown a strong correlation with profit revision for next year (2021), of around 1-1.5% on average. Nordea On Your Mind is the flagship publication of Nordea Investment Banking’s Thematics team, which produces research for large corporate and institutional clients.
The research does not contain investment advice and typically covers topics of a strategic and long-term nature, which can affect corporate financial performance. Top decision makers at Nordea’s large clients across the Nordic region receive Nordea On Your Mind around eight times per year. The publication’s themes vary widely, and many are selected from suggestions by clients.
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