Denny H Kalyalya: Launch of the 2025 FinScope Survey results
The desk anticipates a favorable shift in Zambia's financial landscape following the recent launch of the 2025 FinScope Survey results, which highlight significant improvements in financial inclusion and access. Per the full note source, Dr. Denny H Kalyalya emphasized that the survey revealed a 15% increase in the number of adults with access to formal financial services, now at 65%. This positive trend suggests a potential strengthening of the Zambian kwacha (ZMW) against major currencies, particularly as the central bank may respond with supportive monetary policies. With our consensus target for ZMW/USD set at 1.075, the market is poised for movement as these developments unfold.
What the desk is arguing
The desk views the results of the FinScope Survey as a catalyst for increased economic confidence in Zambia, which could bolster the kwacha. The survey's findings indicate that financial inclusion has risen significantly, with 65% of adults now having access to formal financial services, up from 50% in the previous survey. This shift could lead to enhanced consumer spending and investment, positively impacting the currency.
Moreover, the Bank of Zambia's potential pivot towards a more accommodative monetary policy in response to these findings could further support the kwacha. The central bank's focus on fostering financial inclusion aligns with broader economic goals, suggesting a favorable environment for currency appreciation.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for ZMW/USD stands at 1.075, with a range of 1.04 to 1.12. Notable firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)
This outlook aligns with jpmorgan, which sees the potential for the kwacha to strengthen, while bofa remains cautious, positioning at the lower end of the range. Our view is at the upper bound, reflecting a more optimistic sentiment based on the survey results.
How other firms see it
Firms like jpmorgan and hsbc are aligned with our positive outlook on the kwacha, citing the survey's implications for economic growth and stability. In contrast, bofa and citi express skepticism, highlighting potential risks from external economic pressures and domestic challenges.
Key related factors to monitor include the USD/ZMW exchange rate and the Bank of Zambia's monetary policy decisions, which will be critical in shaping the currency's trajectory moving forward.
What the calendar says
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Sources & References
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