FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been losing ground ever since the NFP report got released. This happened mainly because the market focus was not on the NFP report, but on the CPI. The market pays attention to the data that the central bank is focused on, and the Feder
| Firm | Stance |
|---|
| YE 2026 |
|---|
UBS | Bullish | 1.1600 |
ING | Bullish | 1.1300 |
Société Générale | Bearish | 1.1000 |
All 29 desk targets for EUR/USD
Desk synthesis pending
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French fiscal concerns are pressuring EUR/USD through the 1.1200 level with technical resistance intact below the 100-day SMA.
French fiscal deterioration and political risk are now exerting visible pressure on EUR/USD technicals; watch for further ER/USD breaks if domestic political clarity fails to materialize.
French fiscal stress and widening OAT-Bund spreads create tail risk for EUR/USD support, with 1.1000 now in play if political uncertainty deepens before 2027.
Fed tightening expectations remain anchored while EUR/USD downside is capped only by short-covering; structural Dollar strength likely persists.
EUR/USD spot sits 3.35% below the 31-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.16, leaving consensus firmly bullish while price action lags.
EUR/USD spot sits 3.36% below the 31-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.16, with a 0.135 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the Fed-ECB rate path.
EUR/USD trades 3.17% below the 31-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.16, with a 0.135-wide dispersion range that signals deep disagreement on the Fed-ECB policy path.
29 investment banks see EUR/USD at 1.1523 by Dec 2026
View the live EUR/USD forecast