GBP/USD Eyes 1.35 Next But ING Warns Recovery May be Brief - Pound Sterling Live
The desk is cautiously optimistic about GBP/USD's potential ascent towards 1.35, pending a determined drive from market dynamics. Per the full note, ING's forecast suggests this level is attainable soon, but they warn that the recovery could be fleeting. Current consensus among banks indicates a median target of 1.3450 by March 2026 with a range from 1.3200 to 1.3800. With no significant economic events ahead to act as market catalysts in the coming weeks, this upward motion may heavily depend on shifts in sentiment and positioning among institutional traders.
What the desk is arguing
The desk frames GBP/USD’s approach to the 1.35 mark as a possibility that may soon be realized, though there is a caveat regarding the sustainability of this recovery. Per the full note from ING, while the pair is steering towards 1.35, a broader assessment indicates that any uptick may not be long-lasting due to prevailing economic uncertainties.
Recent positioning suggests that traders are betting on a rebound in GBP/USD, as reflected in our analysis showing numerous forecasts aligning around the 1.35 mark. Specifically, a slew of banks, including Goldman and JPMorgan, have projected similar targets, reinforcing this upward sentiment on GBP/USD.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our internal consensus target for GBP/USD stands at 1.3450, with a range of 1.3200 to 1.3800 by March 2026. Notably, several firms have aligned forecasts that bolster this outlook: - JPMorgan: Mar26 1.3700 - Goldman: Mar26 1.3300 - MUFJ: Mar26 1.3500
This perspective largely falls in the middle of the cross-firm consensus, with ING’s adjusted target of 1.3500 for March 2026 aligning with broader predictions. The desk views this as a justified position, resting at a practical median within a consensus that indicates ongoing deliberation among banks without extreme deviations.
How other firms see it
Aligned firms such as Deutsche Bank, Barclays, and HSBC share similar bullish forecasts for GBP/USD. On the contrary, more conservative stances come from Citi, which exhibits a more bearish target forecast, suggesting a potential divergence in outlooks as GBP/USD approaches key resistance levels.
The ongoing trajectory of EUR/USD may offer additional insights as both pairs often react to similar economic indicators and central bank signals, particularly in the context of the BoE's potential policy adjustments.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01GBP/USD is targeting 1.35 amidst broader economic uncertainties.
- 02ING warns that any recovery towards 1.35 may be temporary.
- 03Consensus targets from other banks support the bullish outlook.
- 04No major economic events in the short term may limit volatility.
Market implications
Traders should monitor GBP/USD levels approaching 1.35, as this threshold will likely dictate near-term sentiment. The absence of fresh economic data might lead to position-driven price movements emanating from the current consensus.
Risks to this view
A reversal could occur if economic indicators demonstrate stronger than expected signaling against GBP strength, particularly if upcoming inflation figures from the UK highlight persistent pressures that the BoE must address, leading to aggressive policy shifts.
GBP/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2027 |
|---|---|---|
Goldman Sachs | Bullish | 1.3600 |
UOB | Bullish | 1.3445 |
Citi | Bearish | 1.2400 |
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Cross-firm research
GBP/USD Consensus Check: 1.35 Target, 0.73% Below Spot — Week of July 11, 2026
Cable trades at 1.3402 against a 21-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, leaving spot just 0.73% shy of consensus with a 0.23-figure dispersion range.
GBP/USD: Consensus Targets 1.35 but Morgan Stanley Sees 1.47
Cable trades at 1.3402, just 0.73% below the 21-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, but a 0.23 spread signals deep disagreement on the BoE-Fed rate path.
GBP/USD Consensus Check: 1.35 Target, 0.23 Spread — Week of July 10, 2026
Cable trades at 1.3402, just 0.73% below a 21-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, but a 0.23 dispersion signals deep disagreement on the BoE-Fed divergence trade.