Goldman Sachs Euro To Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Ceiling Remains At 1.25 - Exchange Rates Org UK
Goldman Sachs maintains a cautious outlook on the EUR/USD pairing, setting a ceiling at 1.25, citing potential headwinds for the euro. Their forecast is aligned with prevailing market conditions and reflects a protective stance against upside volatility.
What the desk is arguing
Goldman Sachs' forecast indicates a firm ceiling for EUR/USD at 1.25, suggesting significant resistance in reaching or surpassing this level. This forecast highlights concerns about the euro's performance against the dollar, reflecting underlying economic factors that may limit potential gains.
Recent consensus targets among various firms also support Goldman’s positioning, though there remains some divergence in expectations regarding the euro's growth trajectory. The overall sentiment suggests that while some optimism exists, external variables could hinder sustained progress beyond the identified ceiling.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our current consensus target for EUR/USD stands at 1.2200 based on median forecasts, reflecting a range where firms predict the pair will gravitate in the medium term. This median is in line with Goldman’s targets for Mar 2026 (1.1800) and Dec 2026 (1.2500), suggesting a convergence toward more optimistic positions toward the end of 2026.
- JPMorgan: Dec 2026 target of 1.2000
- Goldman: Dec 2026 target of 1.2500
- Deutsche Bank: Dec 2026 target of 1.2500
How other firms see it
Other firms largely echo Goldman’s cautious outlook, but there are slight variations in forecast ceilings. Notably, MorganStanley anticipates a maximum of 1.2300 by June 2026, indicating a more optimistic short-term view yet still below Goldman's ceiling.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Goldman Sachs sets a ceiling at 1.25 for EUR/USD, indicating a cautious outlook.
- 02The consensus target for EUR/USD is currently at 1.2200, aligning closely with Goldman’s stance.
- 03Variation among firms reflects differing expectations on the euro's ability to strengthen against the dollar.
Market implications
Goldman Sachs' forecast suggests that investors should be cautious about taking long positions in the euro at current levels. The outlined ceiling indicates potential resistance that could hinder short-term gains, potentially leading to more strategic, defensive trading approaches.
Risks to this view
Key risks include unexpected economic data releases from the Eurozone or the U.S. that could shift the balance in favor of either currency. Geopolitical tensions and monetary policy changes may also exert pressure on this pair and influence market sentiment.
EUR/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
BNP Paribas | Bearish | 1.1500 |
UBS | Bullish | 1.1800 |
UOB | Bullish | 1.1800 |
Sources & References
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