Loading…
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Institutional FX coverage in your inbox
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 36 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 36 institutional desks. No promotion.
The latest insights from ING reinforce a bullish outlook for the EUR/USD exchange rate, with a target of 1.18 by the end of 2025. This aligns with the consensus view among major banks, indicating a potential appreciation of the euro against the dollar in the medium term, despite current market pressures.
The prevailing sentiment among analysts is that the EUR/USD will reach 1.18 by the end of 2025, as projected by ING. This forecast underlines a broader expectation of a strengthening euro, fueled by anticipated economic recovery in the Eurozone and ongoing adjustments in the U.S. monetary policy landscape.
Supporting this view, recent revisions from various banks indicate a similar trajectory, with many aligning their forecasts closely to ING's predictions. As the euro trades at 1.1500, the notion that it can appreciate nearly 2% within the next two years presents a convincing argument for investors looking at the G10 currency space.
Our current consensus target for the EUR/USD is 1.2200 by December 2026, reflecting a range that spans from 1.1700 to 1.2500. ING’s forecast aligns closely with the midpoint of this range, suggesting a consensus view that sees the euro appreciating against the dollar over this timeframe.
Notably, some firms have made specific calls that corroborate this bullish sentiment: - JPMorgan: Dec26 target at 1.2000 - Goldman: Dec26 target at 1.2500 - Morgan Stanley: Dec26 target at 1.1600
In analyzing the consensus, several firms present a range of forecasts that generally support the bullish outlook on EUR/USD but with varying degrees of optimism.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
Market implications
If ING's forecast holds true, the market could see increased positions favoring the euro, prompting shifts in trade flows that may influence dollar liquidity and overall G10 currency dynamics. Investors may also reassess risk profiles with the anticipated strengthening of the euro against the dollar.
Risks to this view
Key risks to this outlook include potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy faster than anticipated, geopolitical tensions that could affect economic stability in the Eurozone, and unexpected economic data releases that could shift market sentiment.
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
ING | Bullish | 1.1800 |
UOB | Bullish | 1.1800 |
Rabobank | Bullish | 1.1800 |
All 30 desk targets for EUR/USD
How we cover this story
Mixed US PCE reduces Fed rate-cut conviction, supporting USD carry flows and widening the rate differential favoring dollar positioning.
ECB tightening cycle expectations support EUR/USD mean reversion from recent lows; rate differential narrows USD carry advantage.
ECB Schnabel's hawkish messaging reinforces market expectations of elevated rates, supporting EUR/USD near-term bid.
EUR/USD spot sits just 0.22% below the 30-firm Dec-26 consensus of 1.17, yet a 0.14 dispersion range signals deep disagreement on the path.
EUR/USD spot sits at 1.1663, just 0.32% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.17, masking a 0.14 range of dispersion across the panel.
EUR/USD spot sits within 0.06% of the 30-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 1.1684, masking a 0.14 range between Citi's 1.10 floor and Nordea's 1.24 ceiling.
30 investment banks see EUR/USD at 1.1657 by Dec 2026
View the live EUR/USD forecastGS |
BNS |
CBK |
UBS |