More Dutch housing supply pushes transactions to record highs
The current surge in housing supply in the Netherlands is driving home sales to unprecedented levels, as per the full note from ING. This increased supply is expected to temper house price growth, anticipated at around 3% this year due to the interplay of higher mortgage rates and weaker market sentiment. With existing home sales projected to reach record numbers, trading strategies might need to consider the implications of this evolving real estate landscape on the broader Dutch economy and the euro exchange rates, particularly as mortgage tightness remains a concern among buyers.
What the desk is arguing
The desk posits that the increased housing supply in the Netherlands is profoundly affecting local economic conditions and, by extension, the euro. Per the full note from ING, there has been a 9% annual increase in homes listed for sale, with a notable uptick in owner-occupiers entering the market, suggesting improved mobility.
This substantial rise in supply is not only stimulating transactions but also easing upward pressure on housing prices, with projections indicating a mere 3% growth this year. Additionally, around 13,000 homes on the market were previously rental properties, a trend indicative of changing investor sentiment towards owner-occupied housing.
Where it sits in our coverage
As it stands, our consensus target for the euro against the US dollar is set at 1.075, with a range between 1.04 and 1.12. The following firm targets exemplify the variability in expectations: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)
This analysis aligns with our broader view that bullish momentum may be faltering, particularly as rising housing inventory and slowing price growth could signal a softening economic backdrop for the Netherlands, thereby putting downward pressure on the euro relative to the dollar.
How other firms see it
Aligned firms like jpmorgan echo the desk's sentiment that increased housing transactions will stabilize the market, while bofa provides a contrary view, anticipating a more cautious approach to housing investment that could affect euro valuation. Such a split in perspective highlights the uncertainty surrounding the eurozone's response to internal housing dynamics.
Indicators to watch include the trajectory of EUR/USD, which might reflect the upcoming adjustments in housing market sentiment and the Dutch central bank's future policy directions, especially concerning interest rates and mortgage availability.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Dutch housing supply is surging, pushing sales to record levels.
- 02House price growth is expected to moderate to about 3% due to market dynamics.
- 03Higher mortgage rates coupled with changing sentiment are influencing investor behavior.
- 04The evolving housing market may impact the euro's strength against the US dollar.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the EUR/USD forex pair closely, especially as housing data continues to release, which may influence market sentiment. A downward break below 1.04 could reinforce bearish positioning.
Risks to this view
If the housing market experiences unexpected shocks, such as a drastic drop in demand or further tightening in mortgage lending, this might lead to a swift reversal of the current bullish outlook on the euro. Additionally, if inflationary pressures force the ECB into a more hawkish stance, this could impact the housing supply dynamics significantly.
Articles More Dutch housing supply pushes transactions to record highs Published 10:14 Real estate The Netherlands Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download More housing supply is supporting a record number of home sales in the Netherlands this year. At the same time, increased supply, higher mortgage rates and weaker sentiment are reducing upward pressure on house prices, which we expect to rise by around 3% this year Sander Burgers The growing supply of homes is pushing existing home sales towards record highs in the Netherlands Significantly more existing homes coming onto the market The number of homes available for sale continues to increase in the Dutch housing market. In the second quarter of this year, NVM estate agents listed 9% more homes for sale than a year earlier.
In particular, more owner-occupiers are putting their homes on the market, pointing to improving mobility. A substantial share of the extra supply still comes from investors selling rental properties. In the second quarter, an estimated one in six homes brought to market was a former rental property, amounting to around 13,000 homes.
Looking ahead, we expect sales of rental properties to decline somewhat, but to remain significant. Many investors are still buying rental homes with the intention of selling them later on the owner-occupied market. As a result, the flow of former rental homes into the owner-occupied market is likely to remain substantial for the time being.
Home sales on track to reach a new record this year Existing home sales in the Netherlands per year, thousands Source: Statistics Netherlands, forecast by ING Research "> Source: Statistics Netherlands, forecast by ING Research Extra supply boosts transactions but cools house price growth The growing supply of homes is pushing existing home sales towards record highs. A few years ago, a lack of supply acted as a brake on transaction volumes, but that constraint is now gradually easing. Homeowners see more opportunities, are therefore more likely to buy and, after purchasing a new home, put their existing property up for sale.
This further improves market mobility. In the second quarter of 2026, around 59,000 existing homes changed hands – roughly 3% more than a year earlier. At the same time, larger supply is slowing house price growth.
At the end of June, around 20% more homes were listed for sale than a year earlier. The inflow of new properties is currently exceeding the number of homes being sold, giving buyers more choice and reducing market tightness. In turn, homes receive fewer bids on average and the likelihood of aggressive overbidding declines.
Sources & References
How we cover this story