The Commodities Feed: Oil under pressure as Iran and Oman reach Hormuz deal
Lead — The recent agreement between Iran and Oman to establish new shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz is exerting upward pressure on oil markets, with ICE Brent trading just below $80/bbl. Per the full note , while optimism regarding U.S.–Iran relations swells, any meaningful progress hinges on diplomatic developments that could revitalize energy flows. Although the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report indicated a slight overall decrease in crude oil inventories, stronger exports and ongoing heat in the distillates market suggest tightening conditions. This dynamic may have broader implications for currency pairs sensitive to oil pricing and geopolitical stability as traders reassess risk exposures and expectations ahead of notable discussions.
What the desk is arguing
The desk perceives that the agreement reached by Iran and Oman may bolster oil supply, thereby influencing broader market conditions. Contrasting sentiment points to ongoing uncertainties in U.S.–Iran negotiations, pivotal for restoring energy flows through the Middle Eastern strait. Per the full note , this is underscored by the latest EIA report showcasing a 2.48 million barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories, illustrating the delicate balance of supply and demand at play in current markets.
With U.S. refinery activity slightly lower and distillate inventories notably tightening, there is evidence of potential upward pressure on refined product prices. The report noted a decline in gasoline and distillate inventories by 1.64 million barrels and 3.47 million barrels respectively, indicative of tightening conditions and illustrating the heavy import/export activity in the U.S.
Where it sits in our coverage
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Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Oil prices remain under pressure, with ICE Brent below $80/bbl impacted by U.S.–Iran negotiations.
- 02EIA data shows an increase in U.S. crude inventories, highlighting the fragile supply-demand balance.
- 03The agreement between Iran and Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz can influence oil flows significantly.
- 04Tightening distillate inventories indicate increasing demand amidst ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
Market implications
Traders should monitor Brent crude prices closely, particularly around the $80/bbl mark, as renewed discussions between the U.S. and Iran could lead to volatility. Commitments to energy supply stabilization will likely guide sentiment across related currency pairs and risk assets, especially those sensitive to oil price fluctuations like USD/CAD or NOK/USD.
Risks to this view
Should the diplomatic negotiations between the U.S. and Iran stall or worsen, expectations for increased oil supply could reverse, resulting in a spike in prices. Additionally, if geopolitical tensions intensify or there is a significant shift within OPEC's stance on output cuts, it might also lead to heightened volatility in oil prices.
Articles The Commodities Feed: Oil under pressure as Iran and Oman reach Hormuz deal Published 02:49 Commodities daily Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Oil prices remain under pressure, with ICE Brent below $80/bbl, as Iran and Oman reach a deal on shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey Source: iStock Energy - US exports record volumes of distillates ICE Brent continues to trade below $80/bbl as the market pins its hopes on a deal between the US and Iran. It would resume energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran signalled progress toward this goal, announcing that it has reached an agreement with Oman on new shipping arrangements for the strait, with a joint statement on the deal now being prepared.
Iran has insisted that the agreement must proceed without interference from unnamed third parties — a formulation that, in practice, almost certainly refers to the US. The real hinge point now becomes the trajectory of US–Iran discussions, because meaningful progress there is essential before disrupted energy flows can realistically resume. EIA’s inventory report showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.48m barrels over the last week, while the SPR fell by 2.84m barrels.
This leaves total crude oil inventories to fall by a marginal 362k barrels. Crude oil imports increased by 515k b/d week-on-week, while exports grew by 218k b/d. Refinery activity edged slightly lower over the week, with refinery utilisation falling by 0.7pp to 96.5%, although it remains at seasonally high levels.
Refined products saw further tightening over the week, with gasoline and distillate inventories falling by 1.64m barrels and 3.47m barrels, respectively. Strong exports are causing further tightening in the US distillates market. Exports rose 98k b/d WoW to a record 1.88m b/d.
Globally, middle distillate markets are seeing significant tightness amid supply disruptions in the Middle East and Russia’s export ban on diesel. Metals - Gold rallies on Hormuz optimism; copper nears record Gold rallied more than 4% on Wednesday. The strength has continued this morning, with the market moving closer to $4,300/oz amid growing optimism that a US-Iran agreement will ease inflation.
A softer US dollar and rising expectations for lower US interest rates provided support for bullion. The market is increasingly focusing on the disinflationary implications of lower energy prices. Expectations for Federal Reserve tightening have eased, improving the outlook for non-yielding assets such as gold.
Continued investment demand from China has also helped underpin the market. Gold is likely to take its cues from developments in US-Iran negotiations and shifts in Fed expectations. While geopolitical risk premiums may continue to fade, lower oil prices, a weaker dollar and potentially a more dovish-than-expected rates environment should remain supportive for bullion.
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