Turkish annual inflation eases in July, but underlying pressures pick up
The Turkish inflation narrative remains nuanced, with July data indicating some easing in annual inflation yet revealing stronger underlying pressures. Per the full note , the annual inflation rate moderated to 31.8%, though core inflation climbed to 29.9% as monthly inflation printed at 1.8% versus a consensus of 1.96%. This duality suggests macroeconomic challenges persist despite headline indicators showing signs of relief, a scenario that could influence monetary policy and market expectations in the coming months.
What the desk is arguing
The ongoing reduction in Turkey's annual inflation rate signifies a complex economic landscape. In July, the annual inflation eased to 31.8%, down from 32.1% in June, while core inflation (CPI-C) saw an uptick of 1.8% MoM, leading to an annual rate adjustment to 29.9%.
Despite some encouraging trends, the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) faces significant challenges managing the balance of currency depreciation and price stability. A modest rise in the average USD/TRY exchange rate indicates that policy measures may be supporting disinflation efforts amid persistent core pressures driven by food and energy prices.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our institutional consensus for USD/TRY is currently set at 1.075, with the range between 1.04 and 1.12. Notable firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)
This perspective emphasizes a cautious approach aligned with jpmorgan while contrasting with bofa, which adopts a more bearish outlook, potentially creating a divergence amongst market participants.
How other firms see it
Several firms are aligning with this cautious view, indicating a gradual easing in inflation without total stability. In contrast, bofa represents a dissenting opinion, forecasting lower exchange rates which suggests a more aggressive hypothesis regarding inflation management.
The trajectory of USD/TRY should be closely observed, especially given the geopolitical backdrop affecting commodity prices which contributes to inflationary pressures. Additionally, further signs of economic resilience or weakness could reshape expectations around Turkey's central bank policies moving forward.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Annual inflation in Turkey eased to 31.8% in July, but core inflation pressures are rising.
- 02Monthly inflation came in at 1.8%, lower than the market consensus of 1.96%.
- 03The Central Bank's exchange rate policy is crucial in managing inflation despite a modest depreciation of the lira.
- 04Geopolitical factors and commodity prices remain key risks for future inflation dynamics.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the USD/TRY pairing closely, particularly for potential breakouts beyond 1.075. Any shifts in core inflation or geopolitical developments, especially regarding oil prices, could create volatility in the pair as market sentiments adjust.
Risks to this view
The primary risk remains a significant shift in central bank policy, particularly if inflation dynamics worsen unexpectedly. Additionally, a rapid increase in volatile food or energy prices could undermine current disinflation trends, prompting a reassessment of currency targets.
Older quick take Quick take Published 11:00 Turkey Turkish annual inflation eases in July, but underlying pressures pick up July inflation came in lower than expected, helping annual inflation continue to ease. However, price pressures were widespread, leading to a pickup in underlying monthly inflation Monthly inflation in Turkey in July was 1.8% vs the market consensus of 1.96% Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Muhammet Mercan Chief Economist, Turkey Monthly inflation in July was 1.8% vs the market consensus of 1.96%, while annual inflation maintained its downtrend to 31.8% (vs the Central Bank of Turkey’s target of 24% and forecast of 26% in the latest inflation report) from 32.1% a month ago. Despite unprocessed food and administrative prices pushing inflation higher, softer inflation in several non-food categories drove the downside surprise.
Core inflation (CPI-C) rose by 1.8% MoM and remained close to the level recorded last year, leading to an increase in the annual rate to 29.9%. However, the central bank's exchange rate policy, which has allowed only a modest depreciation of the lira in recent months, has kept core pressures in check. In other words, while the average increase in the USD/TRY stood at 1.7% in July compared to the previous month, its annual increase remaining at around 17% – significantly below inflation in the same period – indicates that the CBT maintains its exchange rate policy, which continues to support the disinflation objective through the cost channel.
In July, PPI stood at 1.5% MoM and fell to 27.8% YoY, the lowest in the last five months, while more than half of the monthly increase was driven by electricity and gas production. Global commodity prices and particularly oil prices in the current geopolitical backdrop will remain the key risk factors to the PPI, which is on a gradual uptrend. Preliminary seasonally adjusted data, set to be published by TurkStat and closely monitored by the CBT, indicate that the seasonally adjusted headline CPI showed an acceleration in the headline to above the 2% level again, as the CBT highlighted a temporary uptick in the July inflation trend in the last MPC statement.
Evolution of annual inflation (%) Source: TurkStat, ING "> Source: TurkStat, ING A breakdown of the data shows that: The transportation group made the largest contribution to the headline figure (0.44ppt), driven by gasoline prices following the spike in oil prices due to re-escalating tensions in the Middle East, in addition to contributions from transportation services. The food group was another contributor (0.40ppt) thanks to a pronounced 2.4% MoM rise in unprocessed food prices vs a 2.4% drop last year. However, processed food showed a benign change at 1.0% MoM, which limited the negative impact from the unprocessed side.
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