USD/JPY is almost back to four-decade high as the US-Iran crisis, slow BoJ keep weighing on the yen
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been under some pressure since last week as the soft US inflation data led to a dovish repricing in Fed interest rate expectations. There’s now just a 15% chance of a rate hike in July, but the probabilities for a September move remain
USD/JPY — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
BNP Paribas | Bullish | 148.00 |
UBS | Bearish | 160.00 |
UOB | Bearish | 160.55 |
All 23 desk targets for USD/JPY
Desk synthesis pending
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Cross-firm research
USD/JPY Consensus Check: Spot at 157.07, Median Target 152 — Week of September 21, 2026
USD/JPY trades at 157.07, roughly 3.3% above the 23-firm median Dec-26 target of 152.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the BoJ rate path.
USD/JPY Consensus Check: Spot at 156.89, Dec-26 Median 152.0 — Week of September 20, 2026
USD/JPY trades at 156.89, 3.22% above the 23-firm Dec-26 median of 152.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the BoJ-Fed spread path.
USD/JPY Consensus Check: Spot at 156.89, Target 152.0 — Week of September 19, 2026
USD/JPY trades 3.22% above the 23-firm Dec-26 median of 152.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the BoJ-Fed spread path.