FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has recovered most of the losses triggered by the softer than expected NFP report as the September rate hike probabilities rose back to 50%. The reason for this whipsaw in expectations is that there was a significant loss of government jobs
| Firm | Stance |
|---|
| YE 2026 |
|---|
UOB | Bearish | 1.1140 |
ABN AMRO | Bullish | 1.1500 |
Bank of America | Bullish | 1.1500 |
All 28 desk targets for EUR/USD
Desk synthesis pending
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French fiscal deterioration coupled with USD strength narrows EUR/USD support; monitor French bond spreads for contagion risk to broader eurozone credit.
Persistent USD demand signals potential EUR/USD downside to 1.1000, suggesting dollar strength may be structurally underpinned rather than tactical.
EUR resistance failure at 1.1200 combined with Eurozone debt concerns suggests structural headwinds for EUR/USD near-term; elevated oil prices add stagflation risk to ECB policy calculus.
ING structural thesis on EUR/USD weakness suggests institutional positioning remains tilted short euro, limiting rally attempts on technicals.
EUR/USD spot sits 3.43% below the 31-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.16, with a 0.155 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the Fed-ECB rate path.
Cable trades 2.33% below the 20-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.355, with a 0.26-figure dispersion that reflects a live debate over BoE-vs-Fed cut sequencing.
Spot EUR/USD at 1.1202 sits 3.43% below the 31-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.16, with a 0.155 dispersion range signalling deep strategic disagreement.
28 investment banks see EUR/USD at 1.1563 by Dec 2026
View the live EUR/USD forecast