Webinar: What if… Oil surges back to $120/bbl?
Per the full note source, ING's 'What if' webinar series kicks off with a scenario where oil surges back to $120/bbl, driven by renewed US-Iran tensions and a Strait of Hormuz blockade. The desk argues such a spike would severely test European growth and the ECB's hiking cycle, with natural gas prices compounding the pain. No consensus target for EUR/USD is available from our internal coverage, but the implicit risk is a sharp euro selloff if energy costs crush the eurozone economy. The calendar lacks high-impact events in the next 30 days, meaning oil and gas prices themselves become the primary catalyst to watch.
What the desk is arguing
The desk frames this as a tail-risk scenario where oil surges back to $120/bbl, revisiting 2026 highs, driven by an escalation in the US-Iran conflict that halts Strait of Hormuz flows. This is not the base case, but ING's economists and strategists are probing what could upend the current benign consensus – specifically the interplay of energy supply shocks, strategic reserve releases, and Chinese demand.
Supporting evidence includes the recent rise in oil prices amid heightened military activity in the Gulf, with natural gas prices also climbing as European storage concerns resurface. The alternative read would be that strategic reserves and demand destruction cap crude below $100, but ING's Warren Patterson and Bert Colijn are focused on how a sustained spike above $120 could derail eurozone recovery and force the ECB to pause its hiking cycle.
Key takeaways
- 01ING explores oil surging to $120/bbl on US-Iran conflict and Hormuz blockade, posing risks to European growth and ECB policy.
- 02Natural gas prices are also rising, compounding economic pressure on the eurozone.
- 03The ECB's ability to hike twice more is questioned if energy costs spike and growth falters.
- 04The scenario is a tail risk, not the base case, but challenges the benign consensus.
Market implications
Watch EUR/USD for downside risk if oil breaches $100 and European gas prices follow; a sustained move above $120 would likely trigger a risk-off selloff, with the euro testing support near 1.04. The ECB's July 23 webinar timing aligns with oil price action, making the 30-minute Q&A a potential market-moving event.
Risks to this view
The call invalidates if US-Iran de-escalation or OPEC+ output increases cap oil below $100. Alternatively, aggressive strategic reserve releases by the US and allies could suppress prices, while a soft Chinese demand scenario would further weaken the bullish oil thesis.
Articles Webinar: What if… Oil surges back to $120/bbl? Published 08:23 Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download How bad could it get for energy markets? And what does the spike in oil and natural gas prices mean for Europe’s economy and the ECB?
Join us on Thursday for the first episode of What if? – a new summer webinar series hosted by James Smith exploring what could turn today’s market consensus on its head. Sign up now James Smith , Warren Patterson and Bert Colijn A US Military helicopter flies over the Strait of Hormuz, where tensions have escalated over recent days Oil prices are on the rise as the US-Iran war enters a dangerous new phase and flows through the Strait of Hormuz grind to a renewed halt. So just how bad could it get for energy markets?
And what does the spike in oil and natural gas prices mean for Europe’s economy and the ECB? Join ING’s economists and strategists for the first episode of What if? – a new summer webinar series hosted by James Smith exploring what could turn today’s market consensus on its head. You’ll learn: ING’s base case for oil prices – plus what it would take for crude to go back to its previous 2026 highs or even higher.
The major drivers of prices, from strategic reserves to Chinese demand. Why natural gas prices are rising and how bad it could get. The impact of the crisis so far on the eurozone economy.
Whether the ECB can really hike twice more as markets now expect. Sign up here Details Date: Thursday 23 July Time: 09:30 BST/10:30 CEST/16:30 SGT The webinar will last 30 minutes, including a Q&A session at the end. The event will take place online, and the waiting room will open 60 minutes ahead of the scheduled start time.
A joining link will be emailed following registration, and you will receive a reminder email 10 minutes before the scheduled start time. By registering for this event, you’ll be signed up to future webinars in this series. You can unsubscribe at any time.
Speakers James Smith (Developed Markets Economist) Warren Patterson (Head of Commodities Strategy) Bert Colijn (Chief Economist, Netherlands) Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Authors James Smith Developed Markets Economist, UK James is a developed market economist, responsible for ING's view on the UK economy and Bank of England.
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