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Across the six EM pairs tracked here, the September 7, 2026 consensus read shows spot trading through median Dec-26 targets on four of six pairs, with USD/INR the clearest outlier — spot sits 6.69% above the median forecast — while USD/BRL is the lone pair where spot and consensus are effectively flush.
Key Numbers
- Pairs covered: USD/MXN, USD/BRL, USD/ZAR, USD/TRY, USD/INR, USD/KRW
- Firms in consensus: 21
- Widest dispersion: USD/INR (83.5–97.0, a 13.5-figure range); USD/TRY second (43.5–56.3)
- Largest spot-vs-median gap: USD/INR spot 94.475 vs median 88.55 (+6.69%); USD/MXN spot 16.926 vs median 17.90 (−5.44%)
- Tightest consensus: USD/BRL, spot 5.127 vs median 5.10 (+0.53%)
- Most bullish-USD outliers by pair: Nomura (USD/MXN, 19.2), BNP Paribas (USD/BRL, 5.7), Citi (USD/ZAR, 18.0; USD/KRW, 1460)
- Most bearish-USD outliers by pair: Standard Chartered (USD/MXN, 17.0; USD/KRW, 1280), UBS (USD/TRY, 43.5; USD/INR, 83.5)
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Pair-by-Pair Consensus Map
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Chartered — USD/MXN | 17.0 | bearish |
| ING — USD/BRL | 4.5 | neutral |
| Deutsche Bank — USD/ZAR | 15.5 | bearish |
| UBS — USD/INR | 83.5 | bearish |
| UBS — USD/TRY | 43.5 | bearish |
| Standard Chartered — USD/KRW | 1280.0 | bearish |
| BNP Paribas — USD/BRL | 5.7 | bearish |
| Citi — USD/ZAR | 18.0 | bullish |
| ING — USD/TRY | 56.3 | neutral |
| Goldman Sachs — USD/INR | 97.0 | bearish |
| Nomura — USD/MXN | 19.2 | bearish |
| Citi — USD/KRW | 1460.0 | bullish |
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Where Is Consensus Most Crowded — and Where Is Dispersion Widest?
USD/BRL is the most crowded trade in this roundup. With spot at 5.127 and the median Dec-26 target at 5.10, the +0.53% gap is negligible. Nineteen firms are clustered in a 4.5–5.7 range, and the two bookend desks — ING at 4.5 and BNP Paribas at 5.7 — are both tagged bearish on USD/BRL, meaning even the outliers lean the same direction. That degree of directional agreement with near-zero spot gap leaves little room for consensus to be wrong without a macro shock.
USD/INR is the opposite. The 13.5-figure range between UBS at 83.5 and Goldman Sachs at 97.0 is the widest absolute dispersion across all six pairs. Both desks are tagged bearish on USD/INR — meaning both expect the rupee to strengthen — yet they disagree by 13.5 figures on where it ends the year. Spot at 94.475 sits 6.69% above the 88.55 median, the largest spot-vs-consensus gap in this survey. The rupee has not closed that gap; either spot has overshot or the median is stale. USD/TRY carries the second-widest dispersion (43.5–56.3), with UBS bearish on USD at 43.5 and ING neutral at 56.3 — a 12.8-figure spread on a pair where the lira's structural depreciation path makes the high end of that range the more defensible anchor historically.
USD/ZAR sits in the middle of the dispersion spectrum. The 15.5–18.0 range (2.5 figures) reflects genuine disagreement: Deutsche Bank is bearish on USD at 15.5 while Citi is bullish on USD at 18.0. Spot at 16.00 sits just below the 16.175 median, a −1.07% gap — modest, but the directional split between DB and Citi is the sharpest single-pair disagreement in this set.
Which Pairs Are the Desks Pushing for Carry?
Carry logic runs through USD/TRY most explicitly. Even at the bearish-USD end of the range (UBS at 43.5), the implied lira level still prices in substantial depreciation from spot at 48.43 — meaning no desk in this survey is calling for lira appreciation in carry-adjusted terms. The neutral label on ING at 56.3 reflects a view that depreciation continues at a pace consistent with the carry differential, not a bullish-lira call. Carry extraction in TRY remains the dominant framing across the panel.
USD/MXN is the second carry-relevant pair. Spot at 16.926 sits 5.44% below the 17.90 median, meaning the consensus expects the peso to weaken from here by year-end — a carry-negative setup for long-MXN positions that were popular in prior cycles. Both desks with targets in this survey — Standard Chartered at 17.0 and Nomura at 19.2 — are bearish on USD/MXN (bullish peso), but the 2.2-figure gap between them is wide enough that the carry trade's risk-reward depends heavily on which end of that range materialises.
USD/KRW at 1346 vs a 1380 median (−2.46%) shows a modest consensus lean toward won weakness by December. Citi at 1460 and Standard Chartered at 1280 bracket a 180-figure range — the widest in won terms — and the carry on KRW is thin enough that the directional call dominates any carry argument.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many firms contribute to this EM FX consensus?
Twenty-one firms are in the panel as of September 7, 2026, with coverage ranging from 18 firms on USD/ZAR, USD/TRY, and USD/KRW to 20 firms on USD/INR.
Which EM pair has spot furthest from the Dec-26 consensus median?
USD/INR, where spot at 94.475 sits 6.69% above the 88.55 median — the largest spot-vs-consensus gap across all six pairs in this survey.
Which pair shows the tightest cross-desk agreement?
USD/BRL, with spot at 5.127 versus a 5.10 median (+0.53%) and a 4.5–5.7 target range across 19 firms.
Which desks hold the most extreme USD/EM views in this roundup?
UBS holds the most bearish-USD positions on both USD/TRY (43.5) and USD/INR (83.5); Citi holds the most bullish-USD positions on USD/ZAR (18.0) and USD/KRW (1460).
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→ See the full Goldman Sachs FX outlook, including the USD/INR 97.0 Dec-26 target that sits at the bullish-USD extreme of the widest dispersion in this survey, at Goldman Sachs forecasts.
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