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As of September 4, 2026, the six-pair EM FX consensus map is broadly neutral in aggregate, but pair-level dispersion ranges from tight (USD/BRL, 1.2 figures) to extreme (USD/TRY, 12.8 figures), and spot is already trading through the median on three of the six pairs. The roundup below covers 21 firms across USD/MXN, USD/BRL, USD/ZAR, USD/TRY, USD/INR, and USD/KRW.
Key Numbers
- USD/INR spot (94.475) trades 6.69% above the Dec-26 median of 88.55 — the largest spot-to-consensus gap in the basket, and the only pair where spot is materially above consensus
- USD/BRL is the flattest call: spot 5.1204 vs. median 5.10, a gap of just +0.40%
- USD/TRY dispersion is the widest in absolute terms: 43.5 (UBS) to 56.3 (ING), a 12.8-figure range across 18 firms
- USD/INR dispersion spans 13.5 figures (83.5 to 97.0) across 20 firms — widest in percentage terms
- USD/MXN spot (16.865) sits 5.78% below the Dec-26 median of 17.90, suggesting the consensus still expects meaningful peso weakening from here
- USD/KRW spot (1346.47) is 2.43% below the median of 1380, with Citi the most bullish-USD at 1460 and Standard Chartered the most bearish-USD at 1280
Pair-by-Pair Consensus: Where Do the Desks Land?
Cross-firm year-end consensus across 9 EM currencies, with terminal-target dispersion and the top-bull / top-bear firm for each. Sorted ascending by gap-to-spot.
Source: Standard Chartered · Commerzbank · Kotaksecurities · Citi +18 more
22 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-04 16:09 UTC
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Chartered (USD/MXN) | 17.0 | bearish |
| Nomura (USD/MXN) | 19.2 | bearish |
| ING (USD/BRL) | 4.5 | neutral |
| BNP Paribas (USD/BRL) | 5.7 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank (USD/ZAR) | 15.5 | bearish |
| Citi (USD/ZAR) | 18.0 | bullish |
| UBS (USD/TRY) | 43.5 | bearish |
| ING (USD/TRY) | 56.3 | neutral |
| UBS (USD/INR) | 83.5 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs (USD/INR) | 97.0 | bearish |
| Standard Chartered (USD/KRW) | 1280.0 | bearish |
| Citi (USD/KRW) | 1460.0 | bullish |
Where Is Consensus Crowded and Where Is Dispersion Widest?
USD/BRL is the consensus pair. With spot at 5.1204 and the Dec-26 median at 5.10 across 19 firms, the gap is a negligible +0.40%. The range — ING at 4.5 to BNP Paribas at 5.7 — is 1.2 figures, the tightest in the basket in absolute terms. That compression reflects broadly shared assumptions around Banco do Brasil's rate path and commodity-linked current account dynamics; there is little tactical edge in fading the median here.
USD/ZAR is similarly contained in spot-gap terms (-1.49%), but the 2.5-figure range between Deutsche Bank at 15.5 and Citi at 18.0 signals genuine disagreement on South Africa's fiscal trajectory and the rand's sensitivity to global risk appetite. DB's bearish-USD call implies rand strength from current levels; Citi's bullish-USD stance prices in a more adverse external backdrop.
USD/TRY and USD/INR carry the widest dispersion. On TRY, the 12.8-figure gap between UBS (43.5, bearish-USD) and ING (56.3, neutral) reflects unresolved uncertainty around the CBRT's real-rate commitment and the pace of lira normalisation. Spot at 48.44 sits 3.60% below the median of 50.25, meaning the central tendency still calls for further lira depreciation — but the tail scenarios are unusually far apart for a pair with this much policy visibility.
USD/INR is the most striking entry in the basket. Spot at 94.475 is 6.69% above the Dec-26 median of 88.55 — the only pair where spot has moved materially through consensus in the USD-bullish direction. Goldman Sachs holds the most bullish-USD target at 97.0 (bearish INR), while UBS anchors the bearish-USD end at 83.5. The 13.5-figure range across 20 firms is the widest in percentage terms in the basket. The median implies a significant rupee recovery by year-end — a call that requires either a reversal of whatever USD strength drove spot to 94.475 or a shift in RBI intervention posture.
Which Pairs Offer the Carry the Desks Are Pushing?
Carry logic is most explicit in the TRY and BRL calls. On TRY, even the most bearish-USD desk (UBS at 43.5) is pricing in a lira that outperforms the carry bleed implied by current policy rates — a structurally optimistic read on CBRT credibility. The median at 50.25 is more conservative but still implies that carry partially offsets depreciation pressure through year-end.
On BRL, the near-flat spot-to-median gap (+0.40%) means the carry argument is essentially the entire return thesis for desks holding long-BRL positions. With BNP Paribas at 5.7 (bearish-USD) and ING at 4.5 (neutral), the spread of outcomes is wide enough that directional conviction is low — carry is the residual. USD/MXN offers a similar dynamic: spot at 16.865 is 5.78% below the Dec-26 median of 17.90, meaning the consensus expects the peso to give back some of its current strength, but both Nomura (19.2) and Standard Chartered (17.0) are bearish-USD — the disagreement is magnitude, not direction.
KRW sits in a different register. The 180-figure range (1280 to 1460) across 18 firms reflects Korea's dual exposure to US tariff risk and China demand cycles. The median at 1380 implies modest won weakness from spot (1346.47, -2.43% gap), but Citi's 1460 call suggests a tail scenario where external headwinds dominate. KRW carry is thin relative to the volatility premium embedded in that dispersion.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which EM pair has the largest spot-to-consensus gap as of September 4, 2026?
USD/INR, where spot at 94.475 is 6.69% above the Dec-26 consensus median of 88.55 — the most extreme divergence in the six-pair basket.
Which pair shows the tightest cross-desk agreement?
USD/BRL: spot at 5.1204 versus a median of 5.10 (+0.40% gap) across 19 firms, with a range of just 4.5 to 5.7.
How many firms contribute to this consensus?
21 firms are represented across the six pairs, with individual pair coverage ranging from 18 (USD/ZAR, USD/TRY, USD/KRW) to 20 (USD/INR).
Where is USD/TRY consensus pointing by December 2026?
The median Dec-26 target is 50.25, implying further lira depreciation from spot at 48.44, though the range of 43.5 to 56.3 across 18 firms reflects unusually high uncertainty around the pace of that move.
→ See the full Goldman Sachs FX outlook at Goldman Sachs forecasts for the desk's USD/INR and broader EM view, or browse the complete FX forecasts directory for all 21 contributing firms.
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