How is bank FX forecast consensus changing?

FX Bank Forecast plots live spot for every G10 pair against the full cloud of sell-side bank forecasts, so you can see how tightly or widely the Street is clustered and where the market has moved away from where banks expected it to sit. As banks publish new targets, FX Bank Forecast tracks how those forecasts are revised, making shifts in the overall consensus visible across the 3, 6 and 12 month horizons.

Which banks are driving recent forecast revisions?

FX Bank Forecast tracks revisions to each firm’s forecast targets and surfaces the biggest movers, so you can identify which banks are pushing consensus higher or lower for a given currency pair rather than just reading an averaged number. This isolates the firms driving a consensus shift instead of hiding them inside a blended estimate.

What is an FX consensus pressure map?

A consensus pressure map shows, for each currency pair, where the live spot rate falls within the distribution of every bank forecast collected. When spot has run beyond the range the Street expected, the pair shows pressure in one direction; when spot has fallen below it, the pressure reads the other way. It answers, at a glance, where the tape and the consensus disagree most.

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FX BANK FORECAST · PRESSURE MAP

Where spot sits in the cloud of opinion

Every G10 pair, plotted as the distribution of every sell-side forecast we have. The dot marks live spot. Red means the tape has run further than the Street expected; green means it has fallen further.

This page answers two questions: where the FX market sits relative to bank consensus, and how that consensus is shifting. It maps live spot against the full cloud of sell-side targets for each currency pair, then tracks how those forecasts are revised so you can see which firms are driving the biggest moves in consensus — not just an averaged number that hides who is pushing it.