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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 35 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 35 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · SCORECARD
Median absolute error in basis points for every sell-side forecaster, by G10 pair, scored against the Street’s average. Lower is better. Hover any cell for the directional hit rate and sample size. Updated nightly.
Which desks think for themselves. For every pair of forecast revisions on the same currency and target quarter, a desk either led (a peer moved the same direction within the next four weeks), followed (it moved after a peer had), or went contra (opposite direction within two weeks). The index is the share of a desk’s interactions that were follows — the classic career-concern herding pattern: being wrong with everyone beats being wrong alone. Rolling 18 months, updated weekly.
| Desk | Herding index | Leads | Follows | Contras | Interactions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotiabank | 60% | 13 | 25 | 4 | 42 |
| UOB | 58% | 7 | 32 | 16 | 55 |
| Citi | 53% | 17 | 29 | 9 | 55 |
| Danske Bank | 48% | 11 | 29 | 21 | 61 |
| Goldman Sachs | 38% | 39 | 39 | 25 | 103 |
| Morgan Stanley | 34% | 17 | 20 | 22 | 59 |
| UBS | 32% | 16 | 20 | 26 | 62 |
| HSBC | 32% | 27 | 20 | 15 | 62 |
| Bank of America | 31% | 67 | 60 | 68 | 195 |
| ING | 20% | 55 | 25 | 42 | 122 |
| Nordea | 20% | 11 | 5 | 9 | 25 |
| MUFG | 17% | 22 | 9 | 21 | 52 |
| Deutsche Bank | 17% | 23 | 9 | 21 | 53 |
| RBC Capital Markets | 5% | 18 | 2 | 21 | 41 |
Low ≠ good by itself — a desk can lead the pack in the wrong direction. Read alongside the accuracy grid above and the revision desk.