Loading…
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Institutional FX coverage in your inbox
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
Daily market-intelligence board
26 signals todayThursday, October 22, 2026
Several banks, including Westpac and UBS, made mixed revisions to their FX forecasts. Meanwhile, Japan's industrial production and inflation data beat expectations, contributing to a positive economic sentiment. However, the Eurozone saw a miss in economic sentiment figures.
Top call
USD/TRY
Desk 1 -11.5% vs spot
View →Surprises
10
5 beats / 5 misses
View →Narratives
11
lead: 2 desks
View →Regime
5.6%
vol low:usd neutral
View →Top split
USD/HUF
7.7% dispersion
View →Where desks stand
No major revisions in the last 24h — here is each desk's most recent expected move vs spot.
Macro prints
Where scheduled releases beat or missed consensus — and how many desks reacted.
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Sep)
US · USD · high impact
Retail Sales Control Group MoM (Sep)
US · USD · high impact
Personal Income MoM (Aug)
US · USD · high impact
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (Aug)
US · USD · high impact
Retail Sales MoM (Aug)
EU · EUR · high impact · 2 banks revised
Core Inflation Rate MoM (Sep)
US · USD · high impact
GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)
US · USD · high impact
Retail Sales YoY (Aug)
CH · CHF · high impact
Conviction map
Cross-firm forecast dispersion by pair — the higher the bar, the wider the split.
Cross-desk narratives
The shared theses moving across the street, ranked by how many desks back them.
Emerging markets are experiencing resilience despite facing inflationary pressures from various fronts, including El Niño effects and increased energy costs.
J.P. Morgan · Standard Chartered
The AI sector is contributing to divergent performance among emerging market currencies, with specific countries experiencing gains from AI-related exports.
MUFG
A trend towards more interventionist policies is emerging, including a shift in U.S. Federal policy as Treasury actions increase in response to market pressures.
Standard Chartered
The ongoing sell-off in the global bond market is significantly affecting currency markets through various channels, including increased USD strength and EM carry unwinds.
MUFG
French fiscal stress is amplifying weakness in the euro, with heightened bond spreads and a shift in market expectations driving bearish positioning.
MUFG · J.P. Morgan
Market sentiment shows a cautious approach towards the U.S. dollar, influenced by mixed data and a saturated Federal Reserve environment.
J.P. Morgan
Emerging market strategies focusing on carry trades are evolving in response to global dynamics, with funder rotations shifting towards preferred currencies.
J.P. Morgan
Disruptions in the Middle East are posing significant risks to energy prices, impacting broader economic growth expectations.
J.P. Morgan
Poland is experiencing a K-shaped recovery, characterized by resilient industrial sectors contrasted with weaker construction performance and vulnerabilities tied to Asian markets.
ING
Central and Eastern Europe's Outward Direct Investment is entering a new phase, transitioning from a foreign direct investment model to one focused on creating successful multinational enterprises.
ING
The future of Central and Eastern Europe will exhibit a mixed outlook, heavily influenced by unique, country-specific dynamics shaping regional developments.
ING
Market state
Volatility level and dollar trend define the regime — and which desks win in it.
Realized vol
USD · 90-day trend
▲ +0.6%
Dollar strengthening
Regime
vol low:usd neutral
Most accurate desks in this regime
% = directional accuracy in this regime · pt = edge vs the desk's own average.
Smart-money check
Where the bank consensus and CFTC spec positioning agree — and where they split.
| Pair | Banks | CFTC | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Bear | ▼ Bear | divergent |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Bear | ▲ Bull | divergent |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Bull | ▼ Bear | divergent |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Bull | ▼ Bear | divergent |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Bull | ▼ Bear | divergent |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Bear | ▲ Bull | divergent |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Bear | ▼ Bear | divergent |
| USD/BRL | ▼ Bear | ▲ Bull | divergent |