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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 31 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 31 institutional desks. No promotion.
Daily market-intelligence board
2 signals todayThursday, July 23, 2026
MUFG updated its forecast on INR with a mixed view. Meanwhile, there were no notable economic data surprises today, and the market is characterized by a calm range regime.
Top call
USD/TRY
Desk 1 -19.3% vs spot
View →Surprises
10
5 beats / 5 misses
View →Narratives
10
lead: 4 desks
View →Regime
3.7%
vol low:usd neutral
View →Hit rate 90d
100%
7/7 closed
View →Top split
USD/HUF
8.7% dispersion
View →Where desks stand
No major revisions in the last 24h — here is each desk's most recent expected move vs spot.
Macro prints
Where scheduled releases beat or missed consensus — and how many desks reacted.
Personal Income MoM (May)
US · USD · high impact
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q2)
JP · JPY · high impact
GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1)
US · USD · high impact
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Q1)
US · USD · high impact
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Q1)
UK · GBP · high impact · 4 desk reactions
Personal Spending MoM (May)
US · USD · high impact
Inflation Rate YoY (Jun)
FR · EUR · high impact · 8 desk reactions
Inflation Rate YoY (Jun)
DE · EUR · high impact · 8 desk reactions
Conviction map
Cross-firm forecast dispersion by pair — the higher the bar, the wider the split.
Cross-desk narratives
The shared theses moving across the street, ranked by how many desks back them.
The rise of AI technologies is significantly driving economic growth across various regions, notably in the US and Asia, as companies invest heavily in AI and technology infrastructure.
ANZ · J.P. Morgan · Standard Chartered · UBS
Ongoing geopolitical conflicts and trade restrictions are reshaping global capital flows and creating new economic challenges for various markets.
Deutsche Bank · Nordea · UBS · Standard Chartered
The US dollar is experiencing a long-term weakening trend due to fiscal pressures, geopolitical factors, and shifts in global capital flows.
J.P. Morgan · Nordea · UBS
An ongoing transition from monetary easing to fiscal stimulus is altering traditional economic recovery narratives and encouraging diversified investment strategies.
Deutsche Bank · Nordea · Standard Chartered · UBS
Despite global headwinds, emerging markets are demonstrating resilience through structural reforms and adaptive economic policies, creating new opportunities for investment.
J.P. Morgan · Standard Chartered · UBS
Current geopolitical risks are reshaping market dynamics, yet strategic resilience is emerging as countries adapt to shifting global economic landscapes.
Nordea · UBS
The ongoing weakness of the US dollar is providing a tailwind for emerging market assets as currency dynamics shift and relative valuations improve.
Nordea · UBS · Standard Chartered
As AI investments soar, caution grows among investors regarding potential bubbles and the sustainability of growth in AI-driven sectors.
J.P. Morgan · UBS
Persistent structural inflation risks are complicating monetary policy decisions worldwide, contributing to uncertainties in growth and investment.
Deutsche Bank · Nordea
Shifts in global economic dynamics are driving significant capital reallocation towards emerging markets and alternative asset classes, reshaping investment strategies.
J.P. Morgan · Nordea · UBS
Market state
Volatility level and dollar trend define the regime — and which desks win in it.
Realized vol
USD · 90-day trend
▲ +1.5%
Dollar strengthening
Regime
vol low:usd neutral
Most accurate desks in this regime
% = directional accuracy in this regime · pt = edge vs the desk's own average.
Smart-money check
Where the bank consensus and CFTC spec positioning agree — and where they split.
| Pair | Banks | CFTC | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Bear | ▼ Bear | divergent |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Bear | ▲ Bull | divergent |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Bull | ▼ Bear | divergent |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Bull | ▼ Bear | divergent |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Bull | ▼ Bear | divergent |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Bear | ▲ Bull | divergent |
| USD/MXN | ▼ Bear | ▲ Bull | divergent |
| USD/BRL | ▼ Bear | ▲ Bull | divergent |